PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   1 - 11 - 3 - 8
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 9:   5 - 2 - 1 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: D’AMBROSIO (#4)
Zap Zap Zap and Swayze both exit the fast Sept. 1 maiden race at Saratoga that was won by the talented first-time starter C Z Rocket. I thought Zap Zap Zap may have run the marginally better race that day as he was chasing the fast pace that ultimately fell apart, whereas Swayze merely followed the winner's closing run while unable to match strides late. These two clearly possess some talent, but both are going to have to prove themselves at this elongated distance. Zap Zap Zap did not disgrace himself in his lone dirt route effort, but he did seem to improve when turned back to sprints. I'll use both of them, but I'm going to try to beat them with D'ambrosio, who has that valuable experience going longer. This horse ran fairly well two back at Belmont behind next-out winner Spieth, and he had a major excuse for his poor subsequent effort at the Spa. Aug. 16 was a day that was strongly favoring runners with inside position, and D'ambrosio raced three to four wide around both turns, effectively costing him any chance of being competitive. This time, he could play out as the controlling speed.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with ALL

RACE 2: POUNDS TO PENNIES (#5)
Length has to be considered the horse to beat off her solid runner-up finish in a similar spot last time. She showed marked improvement over her debut effort, flashing early speed before just getting run down by Speighal in the late stages. I prefer her to Wake Island, who always shows up with a solid effort, but has had her chances and just doesn't seem to possess that will to win. I respect Length, but I'm most interested in Bill Mott's other entrant, Pounds to Pennies, who figures to go off at a more attractive price. This filly has run better than it seems in all of her turf starts. She made a wide, premature move to the lead in her debut at Gulfstream over the winter, and if she ever gets back to that effort she could certainly beat this field. After that, she was steadied sharply at the eighth pole in her next start, at Keeneland, and clipped heels and fell at Monmouth. In her most recent turf start, at Suffolk Downs, her rider may have waited too long to make a move as the winner was able to put too much separation between herself and the rest of the field around the turn. If she works out a fair trip today, I think she's a real threat to take down the top prize.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,7

RACE 4: ANNA RAE (#1)
This race is pretty wide open, so I'm reluctant to settle for a short price on Chad Brown's likely favorite Transaction Tax. Brown does have outstanding numbers with turf turn-backs at Belmont, but last time this filly was able to set a comfortable pace over a turf course that was carrying runners with speed and inside position. I'm going to try to beat her with Anna Rae, who makes her first start off the claim by Brad Cox. This filly has been somewhat of a disappointment since an impressive debut win at Saratoga two summers ago, but I think this surface switch may wake her up. Brad Cox has awesome numbers with non-maidens making their turf debuts. Over the past five years, he is 12 for 40 (30%, $3.18 ROI) with such runners. Furthermore, this filly has a decent turf pedigree on the dam's side. Despite never winning on turf, her dam placed in 7 of her 10 starts over that surface and clearly was best on turf.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,8,11

RACE 9: GOLDMAKESMESMILE (#5)
The horse to beat is Daddyisdooley, who makes her first start off the claim by the Robertino Diodoro barn. She has been beaten in similar spots recently, but I think she’s run pretty well despite her string of second-place results. Two back, she did was chasing a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) while two wide in a race dominated by runners that rode the rail. However, she's going to be a short price, and I think another runner in this event figures to offer better value. Goldmakesmesmile has actually run reasonably well in her three turf starts. She was justifiably disqualified last time, but did run well to "win" the race after having to wait for room in the lane. Turning back to a sprint distance is a question mark, but it's worth noting that her lone prior turf sprint was not nearly as bad as it seems. That day, she was stuck in traffic along the rail for nearly a quarter of a mile, and didn't get into the clear until the race was essentially over. Now she's getting a significant rider upgrade to Paco Lopez and will be a square price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,9