by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   8 - 1 - 9 - 4
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   1 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   4 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 9 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 5: KLICKITAT (#5)
There are four main players in this race, and three of them raced against each other last time in that Aug. 23 race at Saratoga. Waynes Footsteps beat Jimmy Jazz and Klickitat to the wire that day, but he benefited from a moderate pace and didn’t have much of a n excuse to get run down by Catorat in the late stages. Waynes Footsteps is in a decent position to wire this field without much other speed signed on, but he’s going to be a short price for the third consecutive time and he’s just failed to get the job done. The horse that I want out of that last race is Klickitat. He was never a serious threat while racing greenly through the stretch, but he also had the most difficult trip, going wide around the turns in a race that was dominated by runners who saved ground. I really liked the effort this horse put in two back, as he lost by only a nose despite appearing to be unfocused through the stretch drive. There’s more to this horse than he’s yet shown and now Jimmy Jerkens adds Lasix to get serious with him. It’s possible that the switch to Belmont Park may benefit him after he seemed to have some trouble cornering at Saratoga. The other runner that must be included is Quiet Out East. This horse has made only three turf starts during his career, but it might be fair to say that it’s his preferred surface. He showed promise in that Oct. 4 race as a 2-year-old, and he should have won that June 2 race earlier this summer in which he made an early move to the front. My only concern is that both of those good efforts came over rain-softened ground and he’ll have to handle firm going on Wednesday.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,8
 

RACE 6: RIKEN (#1)
Crack Shot has to be considered the horse to beat. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be in front early in a situation favoring the leader. He got cooked in a fast pace at Saratoga two back, but he bounced back nicely to get the maiden win last time. Call Me Harry returned to win with a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and four horses that finished behind him last time have won their next start, all significantly improving their speed figures. However, Jeremiah Englehart is 2 for 28 (7%, $0.71 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on the turf over 5 years. I’m using him, but I wouldn’t want to accept a very short price. Bourbon Mission may be the main rival after finishing third in two starts at this level at Saratoga. I wasn’t thrilled with his effort two back, but he did close decently into a slow pace last time after racing too far back in the early going. It’s unclear if he’s quite as good as Crack Shot, but he could be a late threat if Irad Ortiz is able to keep him a bit closer to the pace. I instead want to take a shot against the favorite with Riken. This runner makes his second start over turf after a decent debut over this surface back in April. He was actually off about two lengths slowly that day, which cost him any chance of attaining a higher placing. He did get some plenty of pace to close into, but could only mount a mild rally in the lane while finishing behind some solid rivals. Both of his siblings were turf horses, so he’s always been cut out to prefer this surface. He now makes his first start as a new gelding off the 4-month break, and improvement isn’t out of the question. Furthermore, he possesses far more tactical speed than he showed in that lone turf performance.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,8
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,5,6,7,8
 

RACE 7: IRISH DANZING (#4)
Fierce Lady is a deserving favorite. She’s just a nose shy of being undefeated through three career starts, and she’s drawn a great post position outside of the other speeds. I was encouraged to see her show a new dimension last time, as Javier Castellano rated her off the pace before she wore down Time Limit in the lane. She didn’t show any signs of stopping going the 6 1/2 furlongs, so it’s reasonable to assume that she won’t have a major issue stretching her speed out to the seven-eighths. I’m hardly against her, though I think it’s always fair to wonder if there will come a point in time when these 2-year-olds who were so precocious early in the season begin to lose their edge. We saw some impressive maiden winners at Saratoga, and a few of them show up to face her here. The most noteworthy challenger is obviously Irish Danzing. This filly exits what appeared to be a strong maiden event, and she absolutely dusted that group. Receiving strong tote support, she raced in close attendance to the pace early and showed a strong turn of foot when set down in the lane. I loved the way she widened while responding to pressure late and the 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned is the highest last-out number in this field. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but both she and Fierce Lady have shown the ability to sit off another horse. I respect the favorite, but I think this Christophe Clement challenger may be able to overtake her.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3,6 with 2,3,5,6