by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 8 - 12 - 4
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 1A - 4
Race 5: 1 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 7: 8 - 13 - 2 - 9
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 4 - 5 - 7 - 8
RACE 2: MOSES SUPPOSES (#7)
There is no clear favorite in this tricky conditioned claiming race. The Pace Projector is predicting that Flatexcel may be the most formidable of the main contenders, as he is fast enough to clear this field in the early going. If the John Toscano trainee merely repeats his last effort, he has a solid chance of defeating his rivals in this spot. He was fairly game in that Aug. 26 performance, as he set fast early fractions and fended off his early pace rival before getting swallowed up by closers in the final sixteenth of a mile. However, he can be somewhat inconsistent and any residual moisture in the surface following Tuesday’s rain will not aid his chance. I’m taking a shot against him with Moses Supposes. This horse is dropping significantly in class after racing primarily on turf. His only dirt start came in his career debut against maiden special weight foes, and the performance was not nearly as bad it seems. While the race earned a slow speed figure, a few horses have returned out of that spot to run faster in subsequent starts. Furthermore, Moses Supposes didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he was forced to race in tight quarters early and had to wait in traffic while traveling eagerly on the far turn. He ultimately got into the clear once he altered course in the stretch, but he could not make a late impact. He improved subsequently on turf, but I thought his debut was encouraging enough to suggest he deserves another chance on the main track. He’s placed at an appropriate class level and he gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4,8
RACE 3: TIZ MORNING (#2)
This came up an atypical race for the class level for a number of reasons. First, this is an unusually weak field for a open-company maiden special weight race on this circuit. To illustrate that point, even New York-bred maiden claimer Our American Star is not without a chance based on his best speed figures. Furthermore, the likely favorite Barahin is hardly a formidable presence. He’s coming out of a slow maiden affair at Keeneland back in the spring, and hasn’t been seen nearly 5 months since then. It’s true that he ran well within the context of that race, and his early speed makes him dangerous in this spot. However, he’s not the kind of runner that I want to accept at a short price. Knight Disruptor ran just as fast in his recent third-place finish at Saratoga, but he was no match the winner that day and there was nothing of real quality behind him. I want to look beyond these logical favorites, since this feels like a race that could produce an odd result. I want to bet Tiz Morning. This gelding is almost certain to go off at a generous price given his low-profile connections and low-percentage rider. Yet, based solely on his merits as a racehorse, he’s a viable win candidate. He ran one of the fastest speed figures of any horse in this field when losing his debut by a half-length at Gulfstream in May. That effort came for a different trainer, but I think you can argue that he backed up that performance in his most recent start on Sep. 1. Tiz Morning broke through the gate prior to the start of that race, and he was able to stay in contention until the quarter pole. Although he lost by 14 lengths, he was facing a field that was wildly more accomplished than this one. All three of the horses that finished in the trifecta that day would be odds-on favorites in this spot.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 8: MORE MISCHIEF (#1)
Elegant Zip and Party Like Grandma figure to vie for favoritism in this Joseph A. Gimma. I prefer the former filly, even though she comes off a maiden win. Elegant Zip participated in two of the fastest New York-bred 2-year-old filly maiden races of the summer at Saratoga, and she ran very well on each occasion. Collegeville Girl, the filly that defeated her on July 25, was a strong favorite over Party Like Grandma in the Seeking the Ante before she was scratched at the gate. I thought Elegant Zip was game when running down the talented filly Tossup last time. She put in a very strong final quarter mile, which suggests he should have no issues stretching out to 7 furlongs. Party Like Grandma has done nothing wrong in her two career starts, but she was greatly aided by a track that was favoring speed and the rail on Aug. 24. I actually prefer Maiden Beauty out of the Seeking the Ante, since she was chasing the pace two wide throughout and has a more versatile running style. I’m using these fillies, but my top pick is More Mischief. Like Elegant Zip, she comes into this race off a maiden victory. While she has yet to run as fast as some of her competitors, she strikes me as a filly that still has room for improvement. She clearly didn’t handle the slop in her debut, and ran a much better race over fast going second time out. She was very keen in the early portions of that Aug. 29 performance, but she nevertheless settled well and finished up with good energy while coming down the center of the racetrack. While her final quarter was relatively slow, the main track was very tiring on Aug. 29 and horses racing on the rail in the stretch seemed to have an advantage. More Mischief has trained in the morning better than she’s performed in the afternoon, but I believe she stands to improve on the stretch-out.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with ALL