by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 7 - 9 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 15 - 10
Race 5: 9 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 8 - 2/2B - 5 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 9: 11 - 7 - 5 - 6
RACE 2: PERRO ROJO (#7)
The two shortest prices on the morning line are Mister Hayes and The Great Samurai, and I think there are flaws with each of them. Mister Hayes has run reasonably well in his recent starts and has a right to improve in his second start for Michelle Nevin, but I really think he'll need to do so. He was somewhat wide last time, but he's going to have to do better to win here. The Great Samurai has run competitive dirt races on a couple of occasions, but I think his overall record on this surface makes it seem like he's more proficient over dirt than he actually is. I want to try to beat them with Perro Rojo, who finally lands in a realistic spot after being overmatched in a long series of races. He was never going to be competitive in those stakes races throughout the spring, and last time he got absolutely no pace to close into going seven furlongs. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and his speed figures give him a big chance to overtake the aforementioned runners. Of the speeds, the only one that I really want to use is Primo Pentimento, who has been subtly against the race flow in each of his last two starts.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,6,9
RACE 3: CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD (#3)
I suppose Manitoulin is the horse to beat as he gets back to Belmont Park, where he put forth a career-best on the Belmont Stakes Day card. If he can recapture the form that carried him to that explosive win, he'll likely beat this field. However, I've been somewhat disappointed in each of his last two starts. He was hard-pressed to even get up for second behind Hello Don Julio at Saratoga last time, and I think he'll need to do better to win here. Fire Away also comes off a disappointing performance and is starting to look like a horse that may not really want to win. Therefore, I'm taking a shot against both of them with Changewilldoyagood. He's simply faster than Mark My Style early, so he figures to own a clear early lead. He ran much better than it appears last time in the West Point, when he made the first move after a run-off Black Tide through very fast fractions. He was racing one path off the inside, which was a distinct disadvantage with the rails down, and he had every right to fade late. Even though he's never gone this far, Changewilldoyagood succeeded going two turns on the dirt earlier in his career, and that requires a bit of stamina. I think he may be better suited to this distance than it seems at first glance, and he's in the best form of his career right now.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with ALL
RACE 5: ROCKIN JO (#9)
The horse to beat is the first-time starter Accolade, who goes out for Christophe Clement. He's always dangerous with horses making their debuts and gets a solid 84 Trainer Rating with first-time starters in turf routes. There is not a ton of class in this colt's family, but he is definitely meant for turf. Of those with experience, Thank You So Much makes some sense, since his dam was a multiple turf winner. However, I'm most interested in Rockin Jo at a much bigger price. This colt has done very little running in his two starts on dirt, but I'm not really bothered by that since he does appear to be meant for turf. His dam has produced one other foal to race, a turf winner. Furthermore, his dam is a half-sister to multiple turf graded stakes winner Chocolate Ride, as well as Grade 1 synthetic winner Killer Graces, who also was stakes-placed on turf. I think something might have happened to this runner last time when he abruptly quit running midway through the race, since Dominick Schettino makes the unusual decision to take him off Lasix now.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,7
RACE 6: RUM TUM TUGGER (#8)
This race is dominated by horses dropping in class, many of which are in questionable form. I want to tread lightly when it comes to the shorter prices, even though they are coming out of much tougher races. Horses like Montclair and Altar Boy go out for top turf trainers, but these sudden drops in class are somewhat concerning. One reason that they're all showing up in this cheap spot may have to do with the distance of the race, since there are few straight claiming races carded at distances beyond nine furlongs. That said, I think this race is pretty wide open and I'm more inclined to side with bigger prices. I think the horse that may offer the best value is Rum Tum Tugger. Aside from the speed Lewis Vale, there really isn't that much pace in this race, and Rum Tum Tugger is one of the few runners that has been successful from a close-up stalking position. Like others in here, he has been facing much tougher competition in his turf races over the last year and is getting significant class relief. He didn't actually run that badly against a quality field in the Cape Henlopen. Since then, he's coming in off two awful dirt efforts, but that's clearly not his preferred surface. He's completely dirtied up now, but he's capable of running races that could win this.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 8: NEWPORT BREEZE (#7)
The horse to beat is obviously Berning Rose, who is probably going to win this race if she runs back to her impressive debut. She set a legitimate pace and drew off impressively to win by 5 lengths while earning a lofty 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The only issue is that almost all of the other major contenders also have speed, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. She could be under the gun throughout from her rail post position. I'm trying to beat her with Newport Breeze, who is the wild card in this race. I don't really know what happened last time. She as up close chasing the fast opening quarter mile in the Seeking the Ante, but appeared to lose interest on the far turn as she suddenly dropped back through the pack. Despite appearing to be hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch, she somehow rerallied to get up for second. This time, with so much speed signed on, I imagine that she'll be rallying from just off the pace. She did show some talent in her maiden win when she defeated Dancing Belle, who returned to finish second in the Grade 2 Sorrento in her susbsequent start. If she runs a more professional race today, I think she can win.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,3,4,5,6