by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 7 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 8:
12 - 3 - 11 - 2
RACE 2: COACH VILLA (#3)
Fallinginloveagain may go off as the favorite in this spot after having a legitimate excuse in his prior attempt at this level back in June. He stumbled badly at the start that day, spotting the field a couple of lengths before he advanced into a stalking position. While he was certainly compromised by the break, it was only a four-horse field and the early pace was slow. Perhaps he’ll be able to avoid tiring in the late stages in his second start off the layoff, but it’s somewhat disconcerting that he hasn’t been seen for nearly three months as the layoffs are starting pile up. Purchasing Power and Curlin’s Knight finished a neck apart when they met at this level at Saratoga as both were no match for the class-dropping winner Internet of Things. While they earned respectable speed figures, both seemed to relish the two-turn 1 1/8 miles and I’m not sure they’re going to be quite as effective turning back slightly in this spot. I want to look past the familiar faces, so I’m taking a shot with the 3-year-old Coach Villa. I know he’s generally run a bit slower than the main contenders, but his last race at Saratoga suggests he’s heading in the right direction. I thought he finished willingly to be third while chasing home a pair of runners who would each be heavy favorites in a spot like this. If you isolate this horse’s fast dirt races, his overall form on this surface looks more encouraging. The distance is obviously a question mark, but I’m optimistic that he can handle it now that he’s gained maturity. The fact Nick Zito is switching riders to Luis Saez suggests Coach Villa may be well-meant this time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
RACE 3: EIGHT OAKS (#7)
Prairie Fire figures to attract plenty of support off her visually impressive maiden score at Saratoga. While she arguably is a deserving favorite in this race, I think it would be wise to temper the enthusiasm about her prospects. Not only was she beating a very hungry field that day, but she was well-meant, getting bet down to favoritism off of one dismal effort nearly a year ago. She ran a fast raw time, but the dirt surface that day was playing faster than it had for the entire meet. That 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her a contender, but others in here have run faster. Ragtime Suzy makes plenty of sense, especially if you isolate her dirt sprint efforts. She figures to work out a decent stalking trip in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace. I could also use Party in the Sand, who makes her first start off the claim for James Ryerson. He is 6 for 20 (30%, $3.13 ROI) first off the claim in dirt races over five years. However, she may be compromised by the lack of speed in this spot. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is Eight Oaks. This filly disappointed in her return two back, but she had a right to need that start following a year-long layoff. The connections shipped her to Finger Lakes last time and she arguably took a step forward. That was a tougher spot than this one and she did well to hang on for second after contesting a fast pace. The 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned is significantly higher than the recent figures of others, and horses who have run back out of that spot have validated the rating. I like the outside post position given this pace scenario and Jorge Abreu is having a strong meet.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,6
RACE 6: TRICKY MAGICIAN (#7)
Spinning Kitten may go off as the favorite in this race due to the fact he’s going out for a high-percentage barn and brings a consistent set of speed figures to the table. Yet, his form doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence. The drop in class from $62,500 down to $32,000 isn’t as drastic as you might think in these restricted 3-year-old races, so he’s getting only marginal class relief. The distance might have affected him when he was outdueled by today’s rival Artemus Bridge two back, and he retuned to finish 2 1/2 lengths ahead of that foe last time when curiously bet down to 4-1. His tactical speed should ensure he works out a favorable trip, but I just wouldn’t want to take him as the favorite in a race where you can make a case for about five or six different winners. My top pick is Tricky Magician. This gelding is making just the third start of his 3-year-old campaign after a productive juvenile season. He faced significantly tougher rivals in his Woodbine return going today’s distance two back. He then was a minor disappointment when dropped in against claimers last time, but the distance was probably too far for him and he was vanned off after that race. It’s a good sign to see him return with a steady series of workouts and he figures to appreciate the cutback. The other horse I want to include somewhere is first-time turfer Thousand Percent. Goldencents is an 18-percent turf sire and his dam won on turf before producing two turf winners. The distance is a question mark, but the connections have been trying to get him on turf since the claim to no avail. If he merely transfers his dirt form to grass, he’s a contender.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with 1,2,3,5,8
RACE 7: GYPSUM JOHNNY (#6)
Binkster has to be considered the horse to beat in this race as he seeks to finally break through at this N2X level after a string of frustrating defeats. He was arguably best two back when he found himself chasing a fast pace that collapsed and then last time he was unfortunate to run into a rejuvenated Ready to Escape, who exploded with a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Barring any such improvements by his rivals here, Binkster is likely to win this race. He’s earned a series of speed figures that should be good enough to break through at this level and he projects to work out a favorable trip. While the Pace Projector indicates otherwise, one would imagine that Leaky Cup and Sudden Surprise will have to hook up on the front end in this race. Both are need-the-lead types, and it could put them each in tricky positions. Binkster, on the other hand, should be content to stalk those two and take over at the top of the stretch. I believe the greatest threat may come from behind in the form of Gypsum Johnny. This horse looks too cheap to compete against these at first glance, but there are some angles to consider here. Gypsum Johnny was once good enough to win open company allowance races, yet he went off form following the 2017 season. It’s taken him a long time to come back around, but his last race suggests that the good version of Gypsum Johnny may be emerging once again. He won that cheap claimer by 3 1/4 lengths, but he had opened up 5 or 6 lengths at the sixteenth pole before Junior Alvarado geared him down late. This is a situation in which he would have earned a higher speed figure if ridden out to the wire. Yet more meaningful is the fact that he was claimed back by Linda Rice, who had let him go for $25,000 when he was off form back in January. For her to dip back in and immediately enter him at the $40,000 level, she’s essentially indicating that she believes he’s turned a corner. If she’s right, he is the one horse in this race who may be able to topple Binkster, and the price should be square enough.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with ALL
RACE 8: RARE GIFT (#12)
It’s hard to get too excited about David Donk’s pair of runners, either of which might be favored in this spot. Abby Normal ran by Mz Seb Pat in the late stages of that Sep. 7 race at this level, but she was just picking up pieces in a race that was falling apart. I slightly prefer Mz Seb Pat, who was closer to the pace in the early going and had a right to tire late. However, neither of these fillies had previously shown much in their turf races and I won’t be surprised if a new face is able to overtake them. The problem with this race is that there are few other contenders from which to choose. Therefore, I’ve landed on a horse who is trying turf for the first time. Rare Gift did little running in her first two starts last year, but now she’s returning as a 3-year-old and switching surfaces. Over the past 5 years, Jeremiah Englehart is 5 for 12 (42%, $3.93 ROI) with maidens returning from layoffs of 180 days or more in turf sprints between 5 and 6 furlongs. While Rare Gift doesn’t have a ton of obvious turf pedigree, there are turf influences here if you look for them. While her dam hasn’t produced any foals who have excelled on turf, she is a full-sister to talented turf sprint winner Bam Bam Bull, who is the dam of decent turf sprinter Bam Bam Blu. Furthermore, another full-sister by Holy Bull is the dam of solid turf horse Questeq. Mission Impazible isn’t the worst turf influence, and it’s not as if this filly has to improve that much to be a contender in this race.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,3,6,11