by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 9 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 8: 15 - 1 - 14 - 8
Race 9: 2 - 1 - 9 - 5
RACE 5: ALIVE (#9)
This is actually an interesting off-the-turf race, as a number of runners left in this field have solid dirt form. Mohican just barely lost in a similar race at this level only a week ago, and has to be considered a key player once again. This Robertino Diodoro trainee can be somewhat inconsistent at times, and that was really his only competitive dirt effort, so it remains to be seen if he can repeat it. Main Track Only entrant Tale of Mist also makes sense off his recent win at this meet. He clearly improved off the claim by John Toscano that day, but he also got a fast pace to close into, and that is unlikely to materialize here. I want to take a shot against these two with Alive. I know that this colt’s recent form has been disappointing, but I think there’s a strong chance that dirt is his best surface despite the fact that his connections have focused on turf and synthetic recently. He ran well on dirt last November when finishing second to the classy and versatile Kabang, and more recently he won an off-the-turf affair at Monmouth in May against a field of similar quality to the one he meets here. I like this outside draw, and he figures to go off at a square price.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,6,7
RACE 6: BITUMEN (#1)
This open claiming affair is one of the most interesting and competitive races of the day, despite drawing a field of just seven runners. Former Chad Brown assistant Dermot Magner got his training career off to a promising start with a couple of winners over the summer, and it appears that he intends to quickly pick up that pace. He claimed several horses at Saratoga, and two of those have been entered back here. Forge may go favored as he drops in class after being taken for $50,000 last time out. While he doesn’t own a significant speed figure edge over his key rivals, Forge is one of the few front-runners in a race lacking much early speed, and the Pace Projector indicates he will have an advantage. Magner also starts Imperatore, who closed down the center of the racetrack to win earlier this month at Saratoga. A repeat of that performance makes him another top contender in this spot, but I actually prefer another runner out of that Sept. 3 affair. Whereas the winner got an unencumbered outside trip, Bitumen had to alter course multiple times and rally through traffic while closing from even farther back in the pack. In some ways, Bitumen ran just as well, if not better, than Imperatore that day. Prior to that, Bitumen was compromised by a speed-favoring surface on Aug. 18, and I believe that he’s in better form than it might appear. He also figures to appreciate the return to Belmont Park, as he relished the sweeping turns when he won at an inflated price back in June. David Duggan does an excellent job with a small stable and I think he has subtly improved this horse. His potent late kick may be strong enough to overcome an unfavorable pace scenario.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6
RACE 9: CURLIN’S NEW MOON (#2)
My main opinion in this race is that I don’t want either of the likely favorites, Gravitating and Uncle Larry. The former has completely fallen apart after showing ability early in his career. He was alarmingly dropped in class off the claim by Jeremiah Englehart last time and ran poorly, and now Rudy Rodriguez keeps him in this bottom-level claimer. Unless he completely turns things around, I don’t see how he wins this. Uncle Larry ran a competitive speed figure on dirt two back, but that was not a particularly tough maiden special weight field. I was not thrilled with this turf try last time and it’s not as if any of his races suggest that he deserves to be a much shorter price than some of the more familiar faces at this level. I’m most interested in the two runners drawn inside. Metaphorical is very intriguing off the claim by Ray Handal, who improved Maimo off a claim from the same connections at Saratoga. My only reservation with him is the stretch-out in distance since he does appear to be more of a sprinting type. I’m using him, but the runner that I want to bet is Curlin’s New Moon. This horse steadily improved for James Ryerson over the course of the summer, twice hitting the board at this level in May and June. He was uncompetitive in a $40,000 race at Saratoga, but that spot was much tougher than this one and his performance was actually better than it might seem at first glance. Now he’s returning off a brief freshening as a new gelding, and I just get the sense that he might be one of the few horses in this race that is actually cycling into top form. You know the distance is not an issue and he’s run two of his best career races over this Belmont main track.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7,9