PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 11 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 7:   9 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   10 - 7 - 2 - 9
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 6 - 5

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: CONQUEST TWISTER (#4)
The horse to beat is Midnight Cello, who ran a series of speed figures while in Jorge Navarro's barn that would absolutely trounce this field. However, I'm very concerned that he may not be able to get back to those efforts. He probably doesn't want to go 1 1⁄2 miles even on his best day, but his last effort – his first for Gregory Sacco – was extremely dull, as he didn't show his customary early speed and backed out of contention midway through the race. There is speed in this race, and if he doesn't make the early lead his chances may be compromised. I'm trying to beat him with Conquest Twister. David Jacobson has gotten off to a strong start at this meet, and this horse fits the profile of the kind of runner he succeeds with. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 44 (30%, $2.31 ROI) with horses making their second start off the claim, going from sprints to routes on the dirt. While Conquest Twister has sprinted for most of his career, he did run reasonably well going nine furlongs as a 2-year-old. Furthermore, his ability to rate will be an asset in this field. I’ll use him with the logical Paid Admission, who you really wanted to have last time, and Dogtown, who gets some needed class relief.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5

RACE 4: DATA DEPENDENT (#1)
Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this race as the two runners that figure to take the most money both come out of his barn. Of the pair, I strongly prefer Data Dependent to Fools Gold. The latter filly ran well in her career debut at Saratoga, but she also got a great trip, stalking the pace along the rail for much of the way before angling out in the stretch. Bill Mott's entrant in this race, Lemoona, ran by her in the late stages, and I thought she ran a much better race considering her two- to three-wide trip. That said, the horse that I think is the most likely winner is Chad Brown's other runner, Data Dependent. She was badly hampered in the early going of her debut. After getting away somewhat slowly, she was carried out into the first turn as her stablemate clipped heels in front of her. From there, she was racing greenly through the final half-mile but still managed to close well for fourth. I think we'll see vastly improved effort this time.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5 with 2,3,5,6,8

RACE 7: SHALAKO (#9)
Slim Shadey was installed as the morning-line favorite, which makes sense given his recent resume. However, this horse has gotten fantastic setups in the form of fast paces in his last two wins. He's had trouble putting top efforts back to back, and I think you're supposed to bet against him at a short price. I'm also not in love with Abiding Star, even though he is projected to be the controlling speed. He got a favorable pace last time, and this is a tougher spot. I'm going to try to beat them both with Shalako. Linda Rice is better known for winning off the claim with sprinters, but she actually has great numbers first off the claim in turf routes. Over the past five years, she is 12 for 47 (26 percent, $3.22 ROI) in those situations. Furthermore, this runner has plenty of back races that would make him tough here, and he has shown the ability to be more forwardly placed.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,6

RACE 8: EXCLUDED (#10)
This race is a fest for trip handicappers. Eight of the 10 runners in this field are all coming out of a common race – the turf sprint at this level on Sept. 1. None of today's competitors finished in the top two positions that day, but a number of them had eventful trips. You could honestly make a case for any number of runners out of that race, so I want to focus on one that I think will offer significant value as a longshot. Excluded got one of the tougher trips, racing three to four wide around the turn, and being compromised by the slow pace that held together up front. All things considered, he did well to pass a few horses in the lane. Last time, he was part of a fast pace that collapsed going a distance that is too far him, so he's dirtied up. I believe this horse has improved as a 4-year-old and has a legitimate chance in a wide-open race.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,7,8,9

RACE 9: MILLIES PARTY BOY (#1)
Assuming Gosilently, who would be the horse to beat in this spot, scratches for Friday’s maiden race, Millies Party Boy is the horse I want to bet. This horse ran better than it seems in both of his first two career starts, making a premature move in his only run as a two-year-old, and chasing a fast pace in his return at Monmouth. Last time, he finished behind today’s rival Appealing Briefs, but I think he has more upside than that foe as he now makes his first start as a new gelding. Furthermore, that was one of the strongest New York-bred turf maiden fields that we’ve seen assembled all year. Both the winner, Hoboe, and fourth-place finisher, Follow the Signs, returned out of that race to improve.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5,6 with 2,3,5,6,9