by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 10 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1/1A - 5
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 2 - 1/1A
Race 5: 1A - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 6: 11 - 2 - 12 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 2 - 12 - 13
RACE 2: AOIFE (#3)
Merger Arbitrage was installed as the morning-line favorite, and I'm honestly not sure why. She's been off the board at relatively short prices in all three of her starts, and now makes her belated 3-year-old debut. She was facing tougher company in those races, but it's not as if she ran particularly well in any of them. I suppose it's a good sign that Chad Brown has not dropped her in for a tag yet, but I don't want her at a short price. I'm instead taking a shot against her with Aoife. This filly has actually run reasonably well on a number of occasions, and she's one of the only horses in this field with solid recent form. She put in a relatively strong effort two back at Saratoga, finishing third behind the improved Remarqued. Then last time, I think she just got the wrong trip racing down inside in a race that was dominated by horses making outside runs. She's better than that, and she can use her tactical speed to her advantage in this paceless race.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,7
RACE 4: TRIPLE DOG DARE (#6)
Impact Player's connections sure are making it difficult for him to win a race. It's hard for me to fathom why they wouldn't just run him in a dirt sprint, but they apparently are eager to find out if he can stretch his speed out to a mile. He's a deserving favorite, but this actually came up as a pretty deep race, and he could have his hands full here. His main rival appears to be Gravitating, who finished well to be second in his debut last month over this surface. Anthony Dutrow has good numbers with second-time starting maidens stretching out, and he's been enjoying a fantastic Belmont meet after a slower start to the year. I'll use him, but my top pick is Triple Dog Dare. He's coming out of a much tougher maiden race than the one Gravitating is exiting, and he had significant trouble. He was green coming out of the gate and ducked in, costing himself about five lengths of position in the first few strides. From there, he dropped well off the pace before launching a belated rally to get up for fifth. Considering that the winner drew off to win by over 11 lengths and looks like a graded-stakes type, Triple Dog Dare actually did well to get within five lengths of the runner-up. He seems like the kind of runner that will stretch out in distance, and I expect to see a more professional effort this time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with ALL
RACE 6: DANCING BREEZE (#11)
This race drew a large field, but the list of contenders is fairly short. Abbreviate is clearly the horse to beat after breaking her maiden in impressive fashion last month. She was somewhat with the race flow that day, as the pace did fall apart and the race was dominated by horses making outside moves. However, she won with something in reserve and appears ready to step up in class. The only knock I have is that she's going to be an awfully short price. For that reason, I'm taking a shot against her with Dancing Breeze. Graham Motion has fantastic numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 15 for 50 (30 percent, $3.27 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes getting Lasix for the first time. This filly kept reasonably strong company in Europe and isn't catching the strongest field in her U.S. debut. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should enhance her late kick.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,12
RACE 7: FOCUS GROUP (#4)
Nik Juarez appeared to misjudge the pace when riding Focus Group to a fourth-place finish last time. The leaders just weren’t moving that quickly up front, and Focus Group was left with far too much ground to make up when still last at the top of the stretch. All things considered, he did well to slice his way through traffic and get up for fourth. Now Chad Brown adds blinkers, which should have him placed closer to the early leaders. If he works out a decent trip this time, I think he’ll prove to be too good for this group.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 6,7 with ALL
RACE 8: FELINI (#3)
Your Love figures to go off at a short price despite disappointing as the 1-5 favorite last time. Perhaps the muddy track was an excuse, but she handled a wet surface in her allowance win back in June. She can certainly win this race, but I think she’s likely to be overbet. At a bigger price, I prefer Felini. I know that Felini’s New York form had tailed off earlier this year, but her last two races, which came at Parx, were quite good. Especially last time, she was dueling for the lead through taxing early fractions and did well to hang on late in a fast race. Behrnik’s Bank, the horse she was dueling with, faded to last but then came back win her next start with a vastly improved speed figure. Also, the third-place finisher, who also attended the pace, returned to win her next start as well, with a 14-point TimeformUS Speed Figure improvement. Kiaran McLaughlin doesn’t have the greatest turnback numbers overall, but he actually does fairly well in situations where there isn’t a layoff involved. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 24 (25 percent, $2.55 ROI) with non-maidens turning back from routes to dirt sprints and running back in 60 days or less.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,6 with ALL