by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Read excerpts from the TimeformUS Belmont Stakes Package below.
RACE 2: JAMMINWITHBRANDON (#4)
Ever since his connections added blinkers two races back, this colt seems to have taken a step forward. He ran extremely well in that April 28 race at Belmont, making the first move into a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs), before just getting run down by today’s rival Tale of Silence, who rallied from the back of the pack. The 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that effort definitely puts him in the mix here. He returned at Pimlico on Preakness Day, where he got a very peculiar ride. Joel Rosario secured good stalking position out of the gate, but then seemed intent on dragging him back through the pack, losing position for no apparent reason. When he finally asked him to go again on the far turn, he rallied well to be third. I think this horse is in better form than it appears and there may not be much separating him from the top contenders here. He’s not the most likely winner, but he’d be a fantastic bet at anything close to his morning line odds. The pick.
RACE 3: GOVERNOR MALIBU (#1)
Only three horses in this race have tried this distance, and Governor Malibu is one of them. Some would make the case that he should have won last year’s Belmont Stakes over this same trip since he was steadied badly at two key points in the stretch drive. He still ran well to finish fourth that day, indicating that this distance should not pose a problem. Since then, he’s had some ups and downs, but his last effort can be read as a sign that he’s getting back on track. The mile of that race is short of his best distance, but he still ran well to finish third behind stellar performances by the top two finishers, Weekend Hideaway and Diversify. Governor Malibu was bothered late in the stretch, but he probably would have finished third regardless. I love that he’s drawn along the rail because he’s the kind of horse that seems to do his best running when he’s down inside of horses. It will now be Jose Ortiz’s job to maneuver him into a clear path at the appropriate time. If he gets a fair trip, I think he can run down the two favorites and pull off the minor upset.
RACE 4: SALTY (#8)
Unlike Abel Tasman, she had some serious trouble through the late stages of the Kentucky Oaks. While Abel Tasman was rallying outside of horses, Joel Rosario on Salty was doing his best to save ground, sticking as close as possible to the advantageous inside path. Normally that would have been a wise choice, but it didn’t work out in a race where the runners racing toward the rail were tiring badly after setting a fast pace. She was steadied multiple times coming to the quarter pole, and was ultimately forced to angle outside to make her run. By that time, Abel Tasman was long gone. I think that the turn-back to a one-turn mile will benefit her. She showed that she was capable of winning around one turn this winter at Gulfstream, and she doesn’t figure to be as negatively affected by a moderate pace as Abel Tasman. She’s the pick.
RACE 5: SONGBIRD (#5)
If she shows up, she’s going to win. There’s always some uncertainty involved when any runner returns from a significant layoff, but this filly has been so consistent and is seemingly unfazed by whatever gets thrown her way. Carina Mia tried to make her work for a couple of victories last season, but she paid the price on both occasions. It seems unlikely they’d try to aggressively go after Songbird with Carina Mia again here, which should leave Songbird racing on an uncontested lead. There isn’t much to say about the wagering opportunities around this race, but it will nevertheless be a treat to see this champion race on such a prestigious occasion.
RACE 6: DISCO PARTNER (#2)
He nearly won this race last year, and might have actually been best. His stablemate Pure Sensation was able to set a moderate pace that day and Disco Partner still nearly ran him down with a powerful stretch run. Since then, he’s put in nothing but solid efforts. He was unlucky not to turn the tables on his stablemate in the Belmont Turf Sprint in the fall, when he was stuck in traffic at the top of the stretch and got going too late. He returned from a layoff last time with one of his finest performances, overcoming an extremely slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) while rallying from last to first. He needs to work out the right trip, and if he does, I think he is the most likely winner.
RACE 7: PETROV (#11)
He’s the classic turnback – a runner that was successful in sprints early in his career but was stretched out in distance in an attempt to gain points on the Kentucky Derby trail. He actually ran very well in a few of the Derby preps, but ultimately confirmed that he just doesn’t want to go that far. Now, he’s getting back to what he probably does best. I realize that his early sprint races are on the slow side, but each of those efforts is a bit better than they look. I was especially encouraged by his runner-up finish in the King’s Swan last December, in which he seemed to be idling on the turn as he got experience rating in behind horses. It took jockey Jose Ortiz a while to extricate himself from that position, but Petrov really got rolling late once clear in the stretch. He earned the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field (121) when finishing a strong second in the Southwest this winter at Oaklawn, signaling that he’s certainly good enough to win races at this level. I think he’s going to get an honest pace to close into, and this outside draw is ideal.
RACE 8: CELESTINE (#5)
Last year’s winner appears poised to repeat. She’s coming into this race using the exact same pattern that worked for her in 2016, off a two-month break following a win in the Honey Fox at Gulfstream. Her new trainer Christophe Clement gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with runners coming off 52-88 day layoffs in 3-year-old+ stakes. While she hasn’t ascended to the lofty territory that she occupied in last year’s Just a Game in her four starts since then, I think she’s going to really appreciate getting back to this one-turn mile distance. She’s the kind of horse that is tailor-made for this trip. She possesses sprint speed, but can carry it over eight furlongs, as she showed when throwing down a 22 flat final quarter to just miss breaking the track record in this race last year. Furthermore, she projects to work out another perfect trip in this race. Sassy Little Lila may be intent on getting to the front here, but Celestine would be perfectly content to sit right off that filly. I think her 3-1 morning line odds are a little optimistic, but I don’t really care about the price on this mare. I just think she finds herself in a perfect spot.
RACE 9: RALLY CRY (#2)
He’s shown promise from the start but has had trouble putting top efforts together. He was compromised by trips when briefly on the Derby trail last year. He ran a couple of fast speed figures last summer at Belmont but then was sent to the sidelines following his third-place finish in the Easy Goer on this day last year. He returned at Gulfstream this winter with a solid effort but then took a significant step forward last time in his second start off the layoff. The horse whom he ran down in that allowance race, Diversify, is a very talented New York-bred who posted a series of lofty speed figures throughout the winter. Rally Cry earned a strong 106 Beyer Speed Figure and a 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, numbers that are certainly good enough to win this edition of the Met Mile. Todd Pletcher has always been high on this horse, and it seems that he’s finally putting it all together. He projects to sit a perfect trip sitting just in behind the speedy Sharp Azteca, and I think he’s a good bet at his morning-line odds of 5-1.
RACE 10: TIME TEST (#4)
He’s a bit of a conundrum for horseplayers. He came over from Europe with quite a reputation. While he was never all that competitive in Group 1 company over in England, he has always shown a great deal of promise. The general feeling was that he was always on the precipice of ascending to the top level of the sport and just needed an opportunity to do so over firm ground at his preferred distance of 10 furlongs. Well, he’s supposed to get that opportunity on Saturday. Chad Brown has made no secret that he was very frustrated by this horse’s loss in his first start in this country in the Fort Marcy. He appeared to have the race wrapped up late, but he hung badly on his left lead and was nipped at the wire. However, it is worth stressing that the Fort Marcy was run over a yielding turf course, and he’s holding out for a firmer surface. Javier Castellano should find a good spot for him in midpack, and if the true Time Test shows up today, as his connections expect he will, he’s supposed to be better than horses like Beach Patrol and World Approval. I don’t expect him to offer a great deal of value, but I’m on board.
RACE 11: PATCH (#12)
This colt was the underlay of the Kentucky Derby as many fans were stirred by the one-eyed colt’s backstory. Based on his form coming into that race, he really should have been closer to 50-1, rather than his 14-1 final odds. While he never threatened to be a serious factor in the Derby, his performance was not quite as poor as it seems, since he had some serious trouble in that race. Breaking from the far outside post in a 20-horse field is hardly ideal, but Patch was able to attain decent position in midpack. He was traveling well past the half-mile pole, at which point he attempted to follow Practical Joke’s move around the far turn. However, that plan backfired when he got sawed off by two tiring runners at the five-sixteenths pole. Patch then attempted to rally around those horses, but again got stopped in a traffic jam at the quarter pole as runners ahead were drifting about. Robbed of all his forward momentum, he trudged home to finish a well-beaten 14th. What I like about Patch is that he fits the profile of the kind of horse that should take a step forward in this race. Considering that he only got his career started in January, he projects to continue improving into the second half the season. He showed enough talent to make it into the Kentucky Derby, but he just wasn’t fast enough to really distinguish himself racing against the best of his division at conventional distances. However, that may change now that he’s stretching out. He is sired by Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags and is out of a dam that is by another Belmont winner, A.P. Indy. There is quality dirt route form running right down through his female family, tracing to the dam of champion filly Banshee Breeze. This distance should be right up his alley and his new rider, John Velazquez, knows how to win this race. We should see Patch produce the best effort of his career thus far. He is the selection.