by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: MY JELLY BEAN (#4)
Paz the Wine probably deserves to be the favorite here, but her lone turf start in 2017 was not particularly inspiring, and I think she’s vulnerable at a short price. There are some interesting runners making their turf debuts who figure to offer better value. Of all the first-time turfers in the field, the one who intrigues me most is My Jelly Bean. This filly hasn't done much running on dirt, but she figures to really appreciate this surface switch. She is a half-sister to two turf winners, by mediocre turf sires Desert Warrior and Wheelaway. Given that she is sired by the solid turf sire Freud, one would assume that she has a right to be even better suited to grass racing than her siblings.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,9
 
 

RACE 4: ELOWEASEL (#5)
Startwithsilver is the horse to beat off her successful 2017 debut, in which she finished just behind the talented filly Epping Forest. A repeat of that effort would make her tough to beat here, but she will have to do it while stretching out to seven furlongs. Furthermore, I don't think she owns that great of a talent edge over this field, and she may be an underlay. I'm taking a shot against her with Eloweasel. There's always some risk involved when betting horses off lengthy layoffs, but this filly has put in some solid workouts recently, and she ran well in her first start back off a similar break last year. Her most recent turf-sprint start Oct. 27 was a better effort than it appears to be, and she's run well enough to win at this level on a few occasions. I think she could offer value at anything close to her 12-1 morning-line odds.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7
 
 

RACE 6: KITTY KAT KATE (#6)
Kitty Kat Kate has not run particularly fast races in either of her two starts, one on dirt and one on synthetic. However, she figures to take a step forward with this move to turf. She is by Scat Daddy and out of a dam who was a turf winner. Wesley Ward has awesome numbers with runners making the switch from synthetic to turf sprints ranging in distance from five to seven furlongs. Over the past five years, he is 14 for 48 (29 percent, $3.66 ROI) in those situations. This filly also gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,9,11
 
 

RACE 7: MOLLICA (#3)
The coupled entry of Portando and Carbon Data figures to go off strongly favored in this spot. However, I think that both are coming off wins that may not be quite as strong as they appear. Both Portando, who won sprinting, and Carbon Data, who won going 10 furlongs, were allowed to set very slow paces in their wins (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) and are trying new distances today. They are the most likely winners, but I don't think they will offer value. Instead, I'm taking a shot with longshot Mollica as he switches back to turf. I know that this horse was a massive disappointment for Linda Rice, but I wonder if this switch back to turf could wake him up. He's always had more of a turf action to his stride, and his pedigree (by Uncle Mo and out of a Stormy Atlantic mare) certainly suggests that he should take to grass. His only start over that surface was his debut, and he may not have been fully cranked that day. At the very least, he's an interesting exotics possibility in this race.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 1,3
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6,9,10,11 with 3
 
 

RACE 8: ACHNAHA (#4)
Taralena is obviously the horse to beat off her solid return win last month. While she beat an inferior rival by only a neck, her performance was much stronger than that final margin when viewed in context. She ran off from the field early, chased by a hopeless longshot who ultimately faded out of the picture. She had every right to get tired late, but she battled back gamely in the stretch to secure the win. She faced some stiff competition last year and should be ready to tackle this step up in class. I'll use her, but I think she'll face a challenge from Achnaha today. This George Weaver mare never had a chance last time when showing uncharacteristic early speed over a yielding turf course. She's better than that and gets back into a more favorable situation here. She gets a positive rider switch to Javier Castellano, and this is one of the softest fields that she's faced in some time.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,10
Trifecta: 4,10 with 4,10 with 1,2,6,8