by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: SHIMMERING MOON (#6)
The runner likely to take the most money is Sunset Ridge, who was a professional winner at first asking last month going 6 1/2 furlongs. Now Chad Brown is attempting to stretch this debut winner out in distance in just her second start, but his numbers with that move are just mediocre in a fairly small sample (2 for 10, $0.77 ROI, over the past 5 years). She can certainly win, but I think she's going to be an underlay and I prefer a runner with more experience. Shimmering Moon is also stretching out for the first time, but she has a couple of things going for her. She's in better form than she appears to be. Her last race, which came on turf, is a throw-out, and her prior effort was much stronger than it seems given that she was against the race flow. Her dam was a stakes-winning router, so it's possible that she could get this one-mile distance. Mike Hushion gets a 100 Trainer Rating with runners stretching out.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4
 
 

RACE 3: PROST (#8)
The likely favorites are Professor Snape and Mo Focused. Professor Snape is dropping steeply in class after two decent efforts against maiden special weight company, but Mo Focused is the more interesting runner. He put in a huge effort last time when he lost by just two lengths despite bolting to the outside rail in the stretch. He does have some talent, but that was the second time in his short career that he's bolted, so he obviously has issues. I'm going to try to beat both of them with longshot Prost. This colt actually did some running in his debut after breaking slowly and getting bumped at the start. He made a middle move on the turn to reach contention before fading late. I wouldn't be surprised to see him show a lot more speed this time, and he's bred to handle the distance.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,6,7
 
 

RACE 5: THEATERINTHEROUND (#2)
I'm not trying to get too creative here. According to DRF Formulator, Chad Brown is 8 for 18 (44%) with $5.18 ROI with New York-breds making their debuts in turf routes at NYRA over the past five years. I'm not the type of handicapper that often picks first-time starters, but Chad Brown just routinely wins with horses like Theaterintheround. Furthermore, he's actually bred to be quite good on turf as a half-brother to turf stakes winner Gallery.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,6,8
 
 

RACE 6: CAMP COURAGE (#4)
Get Jets is going to be an awfully short price in this race, and he deserves to be. Coming off a lengthy layoff last time, he showed no signs of rust when rallying to finish a strong second to the talented Tombelaine over this same course and distance. A repeat of that performance will be tough for these to beat, and I don't deny that he is the most likely winner. However, there is another horse in this race that I think could get overlooked in the wagering and will offer far better value. Camp Courage did not show much in his U.S. debut at Gulfstream. He was off slowly and checked at the start before getting eased in the stretch. I think he could run a lot better here. Based on his French form, he's really more of a sprinting type, so this one-turn seven furlongs should be to his liking. Furthermore, he's a horse that was forwardly placed in those early starts, so he could find himself close to the front in a race lacking much pace as long as he breaks cleanly. All of his turf Timeform numbers were earned as a 2-year-old, and he has a right to have improved since then. He actually kept good company in those races, even finishing second to eventual middle-distance monster Almanzor.

Win/Place: 4
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,2,3,5,9
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2,3,5,9 with 4
 
 

RACE 8: GLORY TO KITTEN (#1)
I suppose there are more interesting runners in this race, but I just kept finding myself coming back to Glory to Kitten during my handicapping process. This filly has really improved for Danny Gargan and seemed to relish the stretch-out in distance in her most recent start. A number of today's rivals were in contention at the top of the stretch in her last race, but she was the only one that could match strides with the stakes-quality winner, Taralena, pulling more than five lengths clear of the rest of the field. She's perfectly drawn on the rail in this race and looks poised to use her tactical speed in a race lacking any confirmed front-runners. I realize that she's not going to be much of a price in this spot, but I just view her as a very likely winner.

Win: 1
Trifecta: 1 with 4,8,11 with 3,4,7,8,9,11
Trifecta: 1 with 3,7,9 with 4,8,11