by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
RACE 1: RIFF RAFF (#6)
Bobby on Fleek figures to go off at a very short price here, but I’m not completely sold on this favorite. Both the Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures assigned to his win two back look especially suspicious in retrospect, as multiple horses have returned to run much slower in subsequent starts. I’m taking a shot against him with Riff Raff. There should be enough pace in this race to set up his late run, and his last few efforts suggest that he’s in great form right now. Seven furlongs look like a perfect distance.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,8
RACE 2: LOUISIANA LADY (#11)
She’s Dreamin and Spring Folly both ran well in their debuts and deserve their fair share of support here. However, I have to give longshot Louisiana Lady one more chance to pull off the upset. You can make the argument that she ran just as well as She’s Dreamin last time given the difference in their trips. Whereas She’s Dreamin made an outside run through the stretch, Louisiana Lady was unwisely steered inside late, where she ultimately encountered traffic issues.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,5,7
RACE 5: SALMANAZAR (#7)
At first glance, the runners in this race look very similar in that they all won their debuts and are undefeated after a single start. However, I think one performance stands out. Salmanazar broke from the outside post in a 10-horse field at Keeneland, rocketed to the lead, and held off a strong late charge from the talented Copper Bullet, who returned to break his maiden by 8 lengths next time out. The race came up very fast (102 TimeformUS Speed Figure), and Pletcher has great numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 11 for 27 (41%) with a $2.42 ROI with 2-year-old debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints with John Velazquez riding.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5
RACE 7: J. S. CHOICE (#12)
This is a very competitive race, and one where you would be well advised to use as many as possible in any multi-race wagers. I’m always looking for horses that may get overlooked in the wagering and go off as overlays, and I think there’s a possibility that J. S. Choice could be the one that offers value in this spot. He ran very well in all of his New York starts as a 2-year-old and had a nightmare of a trip in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s far better than that effort, and has a right to have improved as a 3-year-old. Over the past five years, Todd Pletcher is 20 for 75 with a $2.18 ROI bringing horses back in turf routes of layoffs of 180 days or more.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,3,5,8
RACE 8: FELLOWSHIP (#5)
Whitmore is a deserving favorite in this spot, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a cinch to win this race. He got the job done last time at Pimlico, but I didn’t like the way he was bearing out around the turn. Furthermore, I’m not sure he’s actually that much better than Stallwalkin’ Dude, who is coming into this race in stellar form. They both must be used, but I’m hoping the race falls apart just enough to allow late runner Fellowship to run them all down. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and this horse may really appreciate the chance to be a closing sprinter moving forward. His race two back suggests he has improved as a 4-year-old.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,8
RACE 9: QUIDURA (#1)
Sea Calisi is likely to go favored, but I think she’s beatable. She got the jump on her main rival, Suffused, who was stuck in traffic at a key juncture of the Sheepshead Bay last time. Furthermore, she may be better on softer turf courses. Dacita beat her stablemate to win this race last year, and appears to be back in top form after a game try in the Beaugay last time. They all must be used, but the runner that intrigues me most is Quidura. This filly burst onto the scene late last year with two strong wins, and her return in the Jenny Wiley this spring suggests she may have taken another step forward. I like the stretch-out in distance, and she’s drawn perfectly down inside for this distance. Her tactical speed should give her the jump on her main rivals.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6,8 with 2,4,5,6,8
RACE 10: ST MICHEL (#13)
I want to focus primarily on the European raiders in this race. Now We Can nearly won this race last year, but did so against a weaker group and appears to be in a tougher spot this time. Instead, I prefer Wall of Fire, Red Cardinal, Wicklow Brave, and St Michel. Of that group, St Michel appears to have the most upside, and he is my top selection. He really improved throughout his 3-year-old season in 2016, culminating with a strong try against some of the top stayers in Europe (Sheikhzayedroad and Quest for More) in the Doncaster Cup last September. I love the rider switch to Irad Ortiz, who will have to work out a trip from this outside post.
Win: 13
Exacta Box: 4,10,12,13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 3,11