by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 5: ZEALOUS SCHOLAR (#2)
Five Star Rampage is probably the most likely winner, but she's going to take plenty of money off her improved performance last time out. Jimmy Jerkens has great stretch-out numbers, which was one of the reasons I liked her last time, but I wonder if she'll be as successful in her second route attempt. I simply cannot take other contenders such as No Hayne No Gayne and Three Eighty Eight, who were awful in each of their most recent starts. Therefore, I've landed on Zealous Scholar. I'll say right off the bat that I have serious doubts about Zealous Scholar successfully negotiating this 1 1/16-miles distance. However, there is simply no other horse that I can pick in this race and I believe she's going to be an overlay. This filly looks a lot better when you focus on her TimeformUS Speed Figures, which take into account that she has set fast paces (color-coded in red) on a number of occasions. She's earned triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures in 3 of her 4 starts, whereas her other rivals have yet to surpass that threshold once in their entire careers. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, so I'm hoping Manny Franco can slow the pace down just enough to get her home.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6
 
 

RACE 6: EXCLUSIVE ZIP (#1)
This is a fairly deep New York-bred allowance race, with major contenders coming from a multitude of directions. The runner likely to attract the most attention is Inheritthewind, but I'm not convinced that he has as much of an edge as it might seem at first glance. He was not facing the strongest open-company field last time and he really did not do much running at any point in the race. I'm more afraid of Vintage Matters, who ran well in all of his races last year and goes out for a trainer who can certainly win off lengthy layoffs. However, my top pick is Exclusive Zip. I know that this 3-year-old will have to improve off his workmanlike maiden win at Aqueduct last time, but there is convincing evidence that he will. Jason Servis has exceptional numbers with horses coming off maiden wins on the turf. According to DRF Formulator, over the past 5 years, he is 11 for 28 (39%) for a $4.24 ROI with that move. Don't be surprised if this horse takes a step forward at what should be a square price.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,6,7,10
 
 

RACE 7: IM THE CAPTAIN NOW (#9)
There are many ways to go in this intriguing maiden special weight affair, but I have to take the logical Im the Captain Now, who has simply been keeping the best company. He ran very well behind the talented Makarios two back, and that foe returned to finish an excellent third in a tough edition of Keeneland's Transylvania Stakes before going on to win an allowance. Then last time he was no match for the regally bred Yoshida, but that impressive Bill Mott trainee looks like he might have graded stakes in his future as well. Im the Captain Now figures to get a fair pace to close into and should have no problems with the added distance.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,6,8,12
 
 

RACE 8: DO SHARE (#3)
He's facing the toughest field of his career, but I think Do Share is ready to tackle this step up in class. The son of Candy Ride has been in excellent form for Linda Rice all winter, coming into this race having won 4 of his last 5 starts. He was especially impressive two back, when overcoming a wide trip to win over a racetrack that was not necessarily favoring horses making wide rallies. I know that his last race looks like a slight step backward, but he doesn't really want to go a mile and he actually may have run better than it appears in victory. It's usually a good sign when Linda Rice places her horses in ambitious spots like this. Furthermore, Rice gets a 100 Trainer Rating with runners going from routes to sprints, and her stable has been firing on all cylinders so far in 2017.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
 
 

RACE 9: NOBODY MOVE (#10)
I see that this horse is also entered Saturday in a dirt race, so his participation in this turf sprint may be in doubt. However, if Nobody Move's connections do decide to opt for Friday's turf race, I have to bet him. His lone turf start is not as bad as it seems, especially considering that he doesn't really want to go two turns. He has a strong turf pedigree, by surprisingly proficient turf influence D'Funnybone out of a dam whose three wins all came on grass. His apparent preference for a sealed dirt racetrack only furthers my argument that he deserves another chance on turf.

Win/Place: 10