by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: WALK AND TALK (#8)
Both of the Wesley Ward first-time starters are likely to take plenty of money in this spot, but his numbers with debuting runners in turf sprints at NYRA are not as strong as you might think. According to DRF Formulator, he is just 4 for 26 in such situations over the past five years. Furthermore, there some intriguing runners that are switching surfaces in this spot after making their debuts on dirt. The one that interests me most is Walk and Talk, who makes his second start for Tom Morley. This colt just looked uncomfortable racing over Belmont's main track in his debut, and he is bred to really relish this move to turf. He is by solid turf sire Stroll out of a turf-winning dam that has already produced a multiple turf winner.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,6,7
 
 

RACE 3: LOUISIANA LADY (#6)
Spring Folly is the horse to beat off a solid debut effort that saw her close from the back of the pack to get up for third. She had to briefly wait for room in traffic coming off the far turn, but generally got a good trip in a race that featured a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs). She's predicted to face the stiffest challenge from first-time starter Sweet August Lady, who was an expensive purchase for a New York-bred as a yearling. Chad Brown is dangerous in these situations, but the runner that I think will offer the best value is Louisiana Lady. This filly has run better than it seems in her turf sprints, especially so last time when she was unwisely sent inside to encounter traffic in the stretch run. If she had stayed outside of horses in the final quarter mile, she might have finished second in that race.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,7
 
 

RACE 6: RUNAWAY POSSE (#11)
I'm a little concerned about the lack of pace in this race, but I still have to pick turf turnback Runaway Posse. I realize that he's been slightly off form in his recent starts, but I think this cutback to a shorter distance may wake him up. He has run some of his best races at sprint distances, and is facing a group that is much softer than the fields he's been matched up against recently. I also think that his last race is not quite as bad as it looks given that the pace of that race was fairly moderate and the winner was able to lead the field from wire to wire.

Win/Place: 11
 
 

RACE 7: GOING STRONG (#4)
He's not going to be any kind of big price in this spot, but I view Going Strong as a very likely winner and think he would be a solid play at odds of 2-1 or greater. There is plenty of speed signed on for this event, with the likes of Control Group, Vilma, Dogtown, and Phat Man all potentially contesting the pace. Going Strong should be sitting in a perfect spot behind those runners, and he's proven that he's capable of winning at this level. I thought that he ran extremely well last time given his trip. He's a big, loping runner who takes a while to get into top gear. Therefore, it probably was not the best idea for his rider to send him through inside of runners on the far turn last time. He ended up losing momentum and getting shuffled back before abruptly switching to the far outside. He then launched a prolonged rally from the back of the pack and made a solid late run at the winner, who had gotten the jump on him.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5,6 with ALL
 
 

RACE 8: TRUE PLEASURE (#1)
This is probably the most difficult race on the card, since there are so many valid options. The horse to beat is probably Spiga, who made her stateside debut going a mile against allowance company last time at Keeneland. She fits here off the strength of that effort, but she is somewhat of a question mark going seven furlongs in a race where others bring proven sprint form to the table. Both Platinum Spark and First Charmer ran well off layoffs last time and have a right to take a step forward off those efforts. However, I prefer a runner who's making the trip up from Florida. True Pleasure has raced on the turf only a few times during her career, but grass is definitely her preferred surface. She ran better than it seems in both of her efforts at Gulfstream this winter. She was briefly steadied on the turn going five furlongs and lost some momentum at a critical point in the race before regathering herself to finish third. Then, on Jan. 21, she was briefly hindered by an incident entering the backstretch and raced wide thereafter going a distance that is too far for her.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,10,11