by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: SQUEAKERS SHADOW (#12)
There is relatively little proven turf form in this maiden claimer. The most reliable runner appears to be Bob, who finished a game second in his debut at Gulfstream for the hot Tom Bush barn. He's the horse to beat, but I'm not convinced that he actually ran that much better than Squeakers Shadow did in his last turf race in Florida. Whereas Bob worked out a decent trip, setting the pace, Squeakers Shadow encountered trouble around the far turn of his Jan. 27 race, in which he steadied and lost momentum at a critical juncture. Since then, he's been transferred out of the barn of a low-percentage trainer and into the capable hands of Michelle Nevin. He was overmatched in one dirt race for the new barn, but now he's entered in a realistic spot, and Nevin gets an 89 TimeformUS Trainer Rating when sending out runners second off a trainer switch.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 6,7,8,9
 
 

RACE 6: EPPING FOREST (#12)
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. However, most of that expected early zip comes from runners who are either switching back to turf or making their turf debuts, so there is some uncertainty involved in this projection. While a fast pace would help my selection, dynamics may not really matter since Epping Forest is probably just too talented for this field. This filly showed real potential when making her debut over this course last summer, launching an explosive rally from off the pace to draw off with authority in the lane. She returned in March at Gulfstream with a performance that is more encouraging than it might seem. She was wide every step of the way after breaking poorly and actually did well to get up for fourth in a race where the pace held together. This distance should be more to her liking. I'll primarily use her over Fire Key, who really moved up on turf last season and should appreciate getting back to that surface here.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,5,6,9,11
Trifecta: 12 with 2 with 5,6,9,11
Trifecta: 12 with 5,6,9,11 with 2
 
 

RACE 7: RUMBLE DOLL (#2)
This is one of the most complex races on the card. All the major contenders are coming from separate directions, which makes comparisons unusually difficult. Thundering Sky is probably the horse to beat given her steady form as a 3-year-old, capped off by a strong win in the Pebbles over this course. Cover Song is less consistent than that rival, but she did run extremely well in her 3-year-old finale and now switches to the barn of Christophe Clement. I respect both of these fillies, but I'm most interested in another horse coming off a layoff. There aren't that many true turf sprinters in this field, but that's exactly what Rumble Doll is. This New York-bred ran well off a layoff on opening day of this meet last year and generally performs well over this course. A lack of pace is a concern for her, but she has shown more speed on occasion. Her overall 2016 form is better than it seems, and her best effort can beat this field.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,8,11,12
 
 

RACE 8: CANDID DESIRE (#11)
This field is absolutely loaded with speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which comes as no surprise given that five horses in this race have Early Pace Ratings that exceed 110. Marriedtothemusic and Rectify look like the two fastest horses in the early going, and both enter this race in good form, but I have trouble envisioning either one wiring the field. The horse to beat is Weekend Hideaway, who won this race last year as part of his most successful season on the racetrack. He just must avoid getting caught up in a hot pace. I'm inclined to look at the closers, and the one whom I want the most is Candid Desire. He got a great trip when he won the Hollie Hughes two back but then disappointed when finishing fourth last time out. However, that performance is much stronger than it appears. He never had good position and ended up going four wide around the far turn. All things considered, he may have run the best race of all that day. He's been in stellar form and gets a positive rider switch to John Velazquez.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 3,4,7,10,13
Trifecta: 11,13 with 11,13 with 1,2,3,4,7,10
 
 

RACE 9: SANDY BELLE (#8)
I could envision some wacky things happening in this race since the favorites just aren't that reliable. Summer Sweet has never run particularly well on turf, Dream a Little comes off a lengthy layoff, and Frost Wise has never raced on turf, though she does have the pedigree for it. I think this is a good spot to shop for a better price, and the longshot who interests me is Sandy Belle. Her debut is not as disastrous as it appears since she was racing in tight quarters early and was tentatively handled after that. It seems like she could have shown more speed with a clear early run, and that belief is corroborated by her strong 10 2/5-second workout as a 2-year-old in training. She has the pedigree to move up on this surface switch as a half-sister to three-time turf winner C d'Cat and turf-stakes-placed runner James Jingle.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5,11