>>Visit TimeformUS for Friday's Highlight Horse and PPs
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 1: Claiming $25,000 at 7 furlongs on turf
I suppose Heated Verdict (#9) and Tracking Stock (#10) are the two runners to beat. Heated Verdict was inexplicably terrible as the favorite last time and will not win this race if he repeats that effort. Tracking Stock seems more reliable, but he does have to face winners for the first time even if this isn't exactly a step up in class. Given that I'm not in love with either of them, I'm going to take a shot with a long shot that intrigues me.
I don't know exactly what happened to OPEN BOOK (#6) in his only turf start, but I do know that he did not get a fair chance to show what he can do on grass. For whatever reason, Irad Ortiz was very hesitant to ride him around the far turn, and he was instead completely taken out of the race after being allowed to go five-wide. However, once he straightened away in the stretch, Irad asked him for some run, and he apparently still had plenty left in the tank as he rallied past a few runners while finishing strongly through the wire. This horse is more effective as a frontrunner, and the Pace Projector is predicting he'll be close to the pace here. I believe he deserves another chance on turf.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,9,10
Race 5: Allowance at 8 furlongs
I don't trust either of the short prices on the morning line. Clearly, Wembley (#3) ran races earlier this year that would crush this field, but her return from the layoff was just dreadful, and I'm concerned she may have gone the wrong way. The Jeremiah Englehart entry (#1) also figures to take money, but I'm not exactly confident in either half relishing this one-mile distance. Instead, I prefer a relatively new face.
MAMA JOYCE (#2) has only raced in a dirt route once in her career, and it was clearly her best effort. Sure, she beat up on slightly weaker competition that day, but the 96 speed figure that she earned makes her competitive here, and runners have come out of that race to improve in subsequent starts. I can't hold her turf races against her, since she apparently detests that surface, and I see no reason why she shouldn't get back to her stronger dirt form today. The Pace Projector is predicting that she is the speed from the inside in a situation that favors the frontrunner.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3
Race 6: Claiming $50,000 at 7 furlongs on turf
ON TAP (#5) interests me as he gets back on turf. This well-bred son of Tapit has a ton of pedigree for this surface, and his lone start on grass is better than it appears, since he was never fully clear in the stretch that day while trying to rally up the rail against tougher competition. He's run on dirt a couple of times since then, and his most recent start, in which he earned a competitive 104 speed figure, indicates that he's still in good form. The Pace Projector is predicting that he'll be racing on or near the lead in a scenario that figures to be kind to frontrunners. I'll use him primarily with Data Driven (#4) and Tiz a Chance (#6), who both have excelled at this distance and are dropping in class.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6
Race 7: Allowance at 6 furlongs
If PICCO UNO (#2) can get back to the effort she put forth two starts ago at Saratoga, she cannot lose this race. That day, she contested a fast pace that ultimately fell apart, pulling well clear of the other horses that were a part of that early scramble for the lead before only getting run down late by Super Surprise, who worked out an absolutely perfect trip. That filly came back to win a stakes in her next start, confirming the quality of the effort. Picco Uno was a deserving favorite next time out, but she was never given a chance to be competitive due to some uncharacteristically poor decision-making on the part of her rider. Manny Franco was intent on rating this filly well off the pace despite the fact that there was almost no other speed signed on. The pace was slow (color-coded in blue) and Picco Uno resented being taken so far off the pace. She lost interest while going wide on the turn, and her race was over. Today, Irad Ortiz has to be more aggressive. This filly doesn't need the lead, but she wants to be in the hunt early.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,5,6,9
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5,6,9 with 1,5,6,9