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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 9 furlongs on turf
Assuming we're on the turf for this race after Thursday rains, the runner that I want most is CHURCH SOCIAL (#5). This filly had been a bit of a disappointment up at Saratoga, but she really put things together last time back at Belmont. The pace was against her as the leaders set slow fractions (color-coded in blue). Church Social was far back in the early going after being squeezed out at the start. She was still left with plenty to do coming to the top of the stretch and appeared to be hopelessly beaten as the frontrunners spurted away off the far turn. However, once steered into the clear, Church Social unleashed a furious late rally to get up for third. She was absolutely flying across the finish line, running her last sixteenth in just over 5.5 seconds, according to Trakus. She had never before shown that kind of focus in the lane, so it's reasonable to assume the addition of blinkers may have improved her.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 7 furlongs
Morse Code (#4) showed a ton of potential in his debut, in which he made a strong rally from the back of the pack to just miss getting up to win going six furlongs. The third-place finisher, Rally Cry, came back to do some nice things as a three-year-old, so it's reasonable to assume that this horse could take a real step forward at three. That said, if I'm going to take a horse coming off an extended layoff, I'd rather have SPRING ON CURLIN (#1), who is at least going to be a significantly better price. This horse took meaningful money in both of his career starts, and I don't think we saw the best of him during the spring. He was green in his debut and galloped out strongly after the wire. Then next time he was off slowly and just could never get into position in a large field thereafter. Charlton Baker does well off layoffs of this type (87 trainer rating), and I think they're bringing him back at the right distance.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,7,8
Race 5: Claiming $25,000 at 8 furlongs on turf
If this race stays on turf, I think you want to go looking for a horse that can come from a bit off the pace. There is a ton of speed signed on, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Given what should be a square price, I want to take a shot with AGAWA (#4). She's taking a needed drop in class and she just was never in position to win last time after getting squeezed back at the start. That race featured a slow pace and was wired on the front end, and Javier Castellano was forced to put Agawa into a drive while going four-wide on the turn in an attempt to make up the ground she gave away early. Her prior turf effort at Saratoga makes her a major player here.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,13
Race 7: Claiming $32,000 at 6.5 furlongs
This is a very tricky race. A number of runners have run well enough to win, but it's difficult to know which version of each of them will show up today—there's a reason they're all running for $32,000. Of the horses with stronger prior form, the one that I think deserves another chance is STORY TO TELL (#6). I'm not quite sure what the story was at Delaware Park last time, but it must be noted that he was shuffled back while pinned in behind a tiring runner on the turn last time. That cost him some momentum, but he still had no finish in the stretch. His races before that make him tough here, and he should be a decent price. I'm taking a shot, but this leg of the late Pick-4 is treacherous.
Win/Place: 6
Race 8: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf
Of the two Chad Brown runners, Grey Stark (#1) figures to take all the money. She may not have wanted to go a marathon distance up at Saratoga and now gets cut back to a more reasonable mile and a sixteenth. While I respect her, she did get a perfect setup when she won at Saratoga two back, and I'm not sure she has as great of an edge over this field as the odds are likely to indicate. Given a much more palatable price, I actually prefer SYMPATHY (#6). Throw out this filly's last race, since she was used as a rabbit. I'm also willing to be forgiving of her effort two back, since that race was dominated by horses that rode the fresh ground next to the hedge, and she was never on the rail at any point. Her effort three back gives her a big chance here and I like that Javier Castellano climbs aboard.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta Key Box: 1,6 with 1,6 with 3,5,7