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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 5: Allowance at 7 furlongs on turf

Another Genius (#1) figures to take plenty of money off her visually impressive maiden score. She was quite keen in the early stages that day and did well to finish up strongly once she got into the clear in the stretch. That said, she was facing an awfully weak field that day and now steps up in class. That line of thinking is what ultimately led me to my top selection, QUEEN OF CASTLE (#5). I have no idea if she is quick enough to negotiate this sprint distance, but she does tend to get tired at the end of her route races. Generally, I think she was keeping slightly better company in those races than she's meeting here, and the race ratings tend to confirm that notion. I realize that the Pace Projector places her near the back of the pack early, but I imagine that Paco Lopez will try to use her tactical speed to put her into a more forward position early.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,8,9,12

Race 7: Claiming $40,000 at 7 furlongs on turf

Based solely on their turf sprint form, two horses in this race stand out from the others. They are RUN FOR LOGISTICS (#2) and BURNDINES (#5). While the former has plenty of experience in turf sprints, the latter has only tried it a couple of times. That said, they are both coming out of significantly tougher spots and should be awfully tough to run down on the drop in class. Run for Logistics, in particular, has been placed over his head on a number of occasions this year, but has nevertheless performed admirably while earning some of the highest speed figures in the field. I like that Paco Lopez climbs aboard, since he should be able to use his ample early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead, which helps Burndines as well. The David Jacobson trainee was forced to rate behind horses at six furlongs last time, but should be able to stalk in the clear today. Both of these horses have run well at Belmont Park, and I strongly prefer them to horses like Make a Decision (#8), who are cutting back in distance.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,5
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 6,8,9
Trifecta: 2,5 with 6,8,9 with 2,5

Race 8: Allowance at 8 furlongs

Keen Ice (#1) is clearly the horse to beat as he makes his first start for Todd Pletcher. I've always been a fan of this horse, and it would be great to see him return to his Travers-winning form and set himself up to make a splash in the older handicap division as a five-year-old. That said, he's not a miler, and it's not as if he's facing a terrible field in his return. There are some horses in this race that are better-suited to the distance and figure to be more attractive prices.

The one that I want is WAKE UP IN MALIBU (#6). There is not that much early speed in this race, and Wake Up in Malibu is predicted to be clearly in front early. I can forgive his races at Saratoga, since he may not have cared for a wet track two back and he's just not equipped to get a demanding mile and an eighth around two turns. Prior to that, he had been in great form, impressively winning a stakes in wire-to-wire fashion after losing to eventual Pennsylvania Derby winner Connect. Charlton Baker's horses have been on a roll since early summer, and I believe this horse's best performance can beat Keen Ice.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7,9
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5,7,9 with 1,5,7,9

Race 9: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 7 furlongs on turf

While I certainly respect the Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence-owned entry, both halves of which are much the horses to beat, I'm intrigued by second-time starter FASTIDIOUS (#3), who goes out for Mark Hennig. Perhaps he was facing a weaker field at Monmouth, but I thought he ran deceptively well in his debut. After breaking about a length slowly, he was rated in behind horses along the rail. Coming to the top of the stretch, he apparently had run, but his rider was not able to maneuver out from behind a wall of runners in front of him. He found a small seam inside at the gap in the turf course, and shot through, bravely making up ground while in tight through the last furlong. Mark Hennig's runners typically improve with racing (he's only a 25-rated debut trainer) and I imagine that this one will take a step forward today. I also love the rider switch to Javier Castellano, which signals that this one may be live.

Win: 3
Exacta Box: 1,3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,8,9