>Visit TimeformUS for Friday's Highlight Horse and PPs
I like REALM (#2) getting back to one turn in this spot. The race he exits at Saratoga was an odd affair in which many of the top contenders—he included—just completely failed to show up with their best efforts. While the track was rated fast, the race was run between rainstorms, so conditions may have been a factor. I don't think U. S. S. Boxer (#5) is actually 18 lengths faster than Realm and am inclined to forgive the latter's poor performance. Prior to that, Realm had run two of the fastest speed figures in the field right here at Belmont in one-turn races. His stalking style should set him up to work out a great trip just off likely speed Clear the Mine (#4), who will be hard-pressed to reproduce his last speed figure at this longer distance. The only other horse in this race that can match him from a class perspective is Juan and Bina (#1), but he just fails to get it done in start after start. If Realm shows up today, the others will have their work cut out for them.
Win: 2
Exacta
Key Box: 2 with 1,5
Trifecta:
2 with 1,5 with 1,4,5,6
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000 at 6.5 furlongs
The morning line favorite is Buckwellspent (#1), but he is a horse that you wanted to have last time when he woke up at odds of 7/1. Today, he's going to be less than half of that price and is unlikely to encounter the same pace scenario, which saw him racing on an uncontested lead. I instead prefer a horse that finished behind him that day. CELTIC SCOUT (#7) has developed a habit of breaking slowly, which is a concern again today. However, that tendency was especially detrimental last time in a race that did not feature a strong pace. Celtic Scout actually did well to race up into contention down the backstretch, but he was then forced to wait for room around the far turn as he was ridden into traffic. All things considered, I thought he did quite well to stay on for third after having to stop and start a couple of times. In fact, Celtic Scout has put in decent efforts in all of his dirt starts, after encountering traffic in his debut and being overmatched in his return in a route back in July. I like the rider switch to Jose Lezcano and am hopeful that he will get some pace to close into with speeds like Ross Boss (#4) and How Frosty It Is (#9) signed on.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta
Key Box: 7 with 1,4,9
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs
There are a few horses in this race that are likely to take money. Among those are Harlan's Hunch (#1), who has run well in both starts for Todd Pletcher and figures to appreciate this turnback to a sprint; Forge (#8), who has a bit of turf pedigree and goes out for the always dangerous Chad Brown; and Toshiro (#11), who ran a winning race in his debut but may be stepping up into a tougher spot. Given the depth of this field, I think there's one horse in particular that could get lost in the shuffle.
Stuck all the way on the outside is CALIFORNIA SWING (#12), who may be coming out of the toughest maiden race of all. The two horses that beat him in his debut, Red Lodge and Madeyoulook, both went on to win stakes over the summer. Furthermore, one of the horses that finished behind him, Keep Quiet, came back to break his maiden at Saratoga before finishing second to Madeyoulook in the With Anticipation. Now you could make the case that those horses improved stretching out, but I still think that California Swing may have run a bit better than the ordinary 80 speed figure suggests. This horse is certainly bred to be a runner, since he's out of a dam that won almost $250,000 racing primarily on turf and synthetic surfaces. I get the sense that today's six furlongs will be more to his liking than the five furlongs of his debut.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta
Key Box: 12 with 1,6,8,11
Race 9: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 8 furlongs on turf
I liked DIAMONDS FOR LEAH (#10) a bit last time after she had gotten a series of poor trips out of town, most notably on June 11 and July 23. Unfortunately, she again got a bad trip in that most recent outing at Saratoga as Dylan Davis unwisely rated her behind very slow fractions (color-coded in blue). She resented the tactics and fought him for the first half of the race, which sapped her of any late kick. There's no rider switch, but I would expect him to learn from that error and have her placed closer to the pace this time. This further drop in class figures to agree with her, and it's not as if she's meeting any future stars here.
Win/Place: 10