by David Aragona

Race 1: Allowance at 8 furlongs

Tale for Ruby (#3) was impressive breaking her maiden over a solid field at Saratoga last time. She earned a solid speed figure for the effort, and today the Pace Projector is predicting that her early speed will give her an advantage over her foes. Sounds easy, right? Well, not so fast. After all, Tale for Ruby does have to handle an extra furlong today, and the dam's side of her pedigree is a bit more geared towards speed than stamina. Additionally, she was bet as if "they knew" she couldn't lose last time, and those kinds of horses are sometimes bad bets when they run back.

Furthermore, I spot a viable alternative. WEMBLEY (#6) took a few starts to figure things out, but her last three or four efforts are pretty good and fast enough to make her a threat to the favorite. Her last race is actually better than it looks considering that the track was aiding frontrunners (note the race rating box colored red) and she was forced into making a premature wide move on the far turn. The other major player is Literata (#4), who has run plenty of competitive speed figures and also merits respect. I just think Wembley has more room for improvement.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with ALL

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming at 6 furlongs on turf

LORD COMMANDER (#3) is the kind of first-time turfer that intrigues me. First of all, he has plenty of pedigree to handle the surface. His sire, Giant's Causeway, is a solid turf influence, and he's a half-brother to graded stakes-placed turf horse Vivo Per Lei with more turf in the second generation of his female family. Now, some might say, "Why did Todd Pletcher not try him on turf sooner?" Well, for all we know, they could have always had turf in the back of their minds but had no reason to try it after he ran so well in his dirt debut. The 113 speed figure he earned in that first start suggested that he had stakes in his future. Unfortunately, things didn't pan out on dirt, so now they're going to Plan B. To my eye, this horse has an action that suggests he should take to the grass. The Pace Projector is predicting that his early speed could make him awfully tough to catch, and I think he can pull off the minor upset at a square price.

Other runners that I would use include Aktabantay (#2), who was facing weaker last time but still came with a good late run and may have found a home sprinting on turf in this country; as well as Dowse’s Beach (#4) and Sandy’z Slew (#5), both of whom seem to have lost a step in 2016 and are taking needed drops in class here. I’m somewhat against Loose on the Town (#7), who doesn’t have that much turf pedigree and would need to improve on this surface to be a major factor.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4,5 with ALL

Race 4: Claiming $25,000 at 7 furlongs on turf

I know that the Pace Projector is predicting that race dynamics may not favor a horse with her running style, but I have to take a small shot with REVERSIONTOTHEMEAN (#2) in here. She has simply been facing tougher company in each of her last three starts, and the race ratings of those races confirm that assertion. All things considered, she's actually been in some of the best form of her career over the past few months. The cutback to a sprint is a question mark, but she did put forth a decent performance going as short as six furlongs just over a year ago, so perhaps today's trip is not so far out of reach.

Win/Place: 2

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

This is a fascinating little maiden race. Horses like Warrior Hall (#2) and Defrock (#1A) are certainly dangerous for top turf trainers, but I'm most interested in a couple of runners that figure to offer more value. My top selection is THUNDERON THE NILE (#8), who actually finished less than a length behind today's rival Wake Island (#3) last time. However, Thunderon the Nile had the slightly tougher trip after getting squeezed back at the start and having to make a wide late run into a pace that mostly held together on the front end. Brad Cox is capable with second-time starters, and I think we'll see an improved performance out of this one today.

At a much bigger price, I also want to use long shot DOUBLE CAST (#6) in exotics. I know that it's hard to take Leo O'Brien in a race that features so many high-percentage turf barns, but this horse does have real pedigree for grass as a full-brother to G2 Sheepshead Bay winner Rosalind. His debut was actually okay, and he could sneak his way into the trifecta or superfecta today at huge odds.

Win: 8
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 1,2,3,4,8 with 1,2,3,4,8 with 6

Race 7: Claiming $50,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

There are a few horses trying turf for the first time this spot, and most of them have speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which figures to set things up for a late runner, and there are two in particular that interest me. My top pick is BIBBO (#3), who was simply overmatched when making his first start off the claim for Steve Asmussen last time. However, it did not help matters that he was wide around both turns after John Velazquez was a bit too tentative heading into this first turn. Bibbo was basically eased late in a performance that was not as bad as it might look. He had previously earned a competitive 107 speed figure at today's class level.

The other horse that I must use is LOST IRON (#9). I'm somewhat concerned that they're dropping this horse in for a tag as he makes his turf debut, but he does have plenty of pedigree for the surface switch, as a half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner Takeover Target.

Win: 3,9
Trifecta: 3,9 with 3,9 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 3,9 with 2,5,6 with 3,9