>>Visit TimeformUS for Friday's Highlight Horse and PPs

by David Aragona

Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 6 furlongs

Kohlhase (#2) earned the highest last-out speed figure for his most recent performance at Saratoga. His early speed makes him dangerous here as he drops in class. While he's the deserving favorite, I'm intrigued by fellow class dropper WHITEGATE (#1). This is really the first time that he's running in a spot where he can be competitive. He was off slowly and simply overmatched in his debut last year, and then he acted up before his second start in a race that he may have needed off the layoff. Last time, he was again away awkwardly from the gate, but recovered nicely to attain a tracking position. Coming towards the stretch, he got caught in behind a tiring runner and lost all of his momentum while steadying. He has some talent and Charlton Baker gets a 100 trainer rating with horses coming off layoffs of this length.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Box: 1,2

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs on turf

Almost all of the main players in this race are exiting the same Saratoga maiden heat won by Touch of Bling. Of the runners coming out of that race, True Pleasure (#4) may have run the best race, but she was 9/2 that day and is likely to go off at less than half of those odds here. And it's not as if she ran that much better than today's rival RANGER LADY (#1), who broke from the outside post position and could never get close to the rail last time. I know that taking these connections may be hard for some to swallow, but the typically aggressive Jomar Torres is supposed to send this filly to the lead from the rail in a race that does not feature much, if any, other early speed. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that she handled turf last time, since she actually has plenty of pedigree for the surface. She would be a massive overlay at her 20/1 morning line odds.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7,8

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs on turf

Mo Promise (#7) figures to go off at a very short price as she drops out of open stakes company. However, it's not as if she did that much running last time, and, while her debut effort certainly makes her the most likely winner, I don't see her as an absolute cinch based off that one effort. Beyond the favorite, there is not much positive form to go on, so I'm not afraid to take a shot with a price and feel pretty confident about her chance to at least make it into the exacta.

I know that RECONSIDER IT (#10) has yet to be that competitive or run a particularly fast race, but I think this filly has more ability than is readily apparent. It's worth watching her last trip pretty closely, since she never was given much of a chance. After breaking slowly, she was rated well off a slow pace (color-coded in blue) and then had to wait too long to peel out into the clear coming off the far turn. She was left with a ton of ground to make up and actually did well to get up for fifth. If she can break more cleanly today, I think she can have a major say in the outcome.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Box: 7,10

Race 8: Allowance at 7 furlongs on turf

I realize that there are some questions about his current form after he failed to hit the board at a short price in his return, but I have to support GET JETS (#11) in this spot. This is just the kind of pedigree play that I cannot resist. This horse showed a ton of ability on dirt early in his career and even had some—me included—speculating that he could be a potential player on the Kentucky Derby trail. That obviously didn't pan out, but I have to think that his connections have always had turf in the back of their minds as a Plan B for this horse. After all, he hails from a strong turf female family, and his lone half-sibling is turf winner Heavenly Sun. While that runner is by mediocre turf sire Holy Bull, Get Jets is a son of elite turf sire Scat Daddy, so one would imagine that he will relish this surface switch. He should have gained some needed fitness from that last race, and seven furlongs is the right distance.

Others to include with my top selection are Asset Inflation (#2), who can rebound from a poor showing at Saratoga provided he gets a more aggressive ride, Final Chapter (#4) and Tiz a Chance (#8), who should both appreciate cutting back to a sprint distance, and Summer Breezing (#7), who has primarily been facing tougher company.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,4,7,8