by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: BOSS LADY PLATINUM (#5)
Fire Key is obviously the horse to beat after just getting run down by next-out winner Epping Forest in her return to turf last time. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead and she is supposed to be contesting the pace early. However, I do think she’ll have company up front from a runner that is going to be a much bigger price. Boss Lady Platinum’s last turf race is not as bad as it looks. She ran off from the field early through extremely fast fractions going a distance that is too far for her. She was very green in her lone turf sprint last year, and I think she deserves another shot at this distance on the grass. She does have a pedigree that suggests turf should be her preferred surface, and Paco Lopez is sure to give her an aggressive ride.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,7,8
 
 

RACE 5: GOT THE GIST (#10)
I don’t often make plays solely on statistics, but I think there’s reason to do so in the case of Got the Gist. Owner Paul Pompa is just two second- place finishes away from going 10-for-10 at this Belmont meet. This seems like an odd horse to wind up in Chad Brown’s barn, but he actually does very well with maidens first off a trainer switch. Over the past five years, Brown is 11 for 28 (39%, $2.62 ROI) with this move, and if you drill down further, he is 4 for 7 in maiden claiming company.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,6,9
 
 

RACE 6: DAISY CUTTER (#1)
Kathryn the Wise has won her first couple of starts with ease, earning speed figures that suggest she may have open company stakes races in her future. However, she’s never raced beyond 6 1/2 furlongs and she does have more of a sprint pedigree. She’s going to face early pressure from Play Me a Memory and possibly even Jules N Rome or Picco Uno. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and I think that will provide Daisy Cutter with the setup she needs. This mare has been in good recent form for Linda Rice and she is the most reliable closer who has proven she can get this distance.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,11
Trifecta: 1,11 with 1,11 with 2,4,5,6,8
 
 

RACE 7: T LOVES A FIGHT (#1)
I’m mildly against both Syndergaard and Bobby On Fleek, the two favorites. Syndergaard did have trouble in his return at Churchill, but he was also pretty dull and it remains to be seen if he’s the same horse we saw as a 2-year-old. Bobby On Fleek was in over his head in the Pat Day Mile, but I’m a little skeptical of his win two back. The race came up suspiciously fast, and two horses have returned out of that race to run much slower. Furthermore, both of these runners could get caught up in what is predicted to be a fast pace. I expect this race to set up perfectly for T Loves a Fight, who is simply the best closer in the field. He’s been in great form since returning from the layoff and a repeat of any of those efforts is probably good enough to get the job done here.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5,6 with 4,5,6,10
 
 

RACE 8: EMPIRE DREAMS (#10)
This might be the most interesting race on the whole card. Diversify is a deserving favorite off his solid runner-up finish to the talented Rally Cry last time, but he is going to have to deal with plenty of early pressure. I think this is another race that could set up for the closers. The one most will gravitate toward is Governor Malibu. He was pretty dull last time, but he may have needed that race and figures to be set for a better effort here. That said, a mile may be a bit short for him. I’m instead going to take Empire Dreams off the trainer switch to George Weaver. I’ve always thought that distances of about a mile around one turn are perfect for this horse, and that’s exactly what he gets to do today. He’s often run a bit slower than some of the top contenders, but he is capable of producing an effort that can beat a field like this when he’s at his best.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,4,5,9
Trifecta: 9,10 with 4,5,9,10 with 1,2,4,5,9,10
 
 

RACE 9: LUBASH (#2)
They’re at it again! The trio of NY-bred warriors – Kharafa, King Kreesa, and Lubash – are all back to battle each other for another season, and they’re now joined by new regular participant Offering Plan. All of them can win this race, but the one that I think will offer the best value today is Lubash. His last race down at Gulfstream suggests that Christophe Clement has finally gotten him back into top form, and he figures to get a decent pace to close into with Macagone in the field. I’ll also throw in Get Jets, who could be a big player in this division if he shows up with more efforts like his strong runner-up finish earlier this month.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 3,8,10 with 1,3,5,8,10