By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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Race 2: Claiming $25,000 at 6.5 furlongs


There is a horse in this race that I have to bet. ADIRONDACK POSSE (#2) is getting a subtly positive trainer switch to Richard Metivier, who has actually done reasonably well with a limited number of starters on this circuit. This horse is getting a needed drop in class out of some tougher New York-bred optional claiming races, and he has had his fair share of excuses. Two back he wasn’t able to close into a paceless race (note the fractions color-coded in blue) and last time he actually didn’t run that badly despite racing down inside behind horses for much of the stretch run. The track figures to be fast by the time this race is run, and I’m hoping he gets enough pace to close into with speeds like Pierce’s Prize, Baby Bear’s Soup, and Roman Revival in here.


I'll use my top selection with General Bellamy (#1), who blew the start last time and may be set for a much better performance in his second start for Jeremiah Englehart, Pierce's Prize (#3), who the Pace Projector is predicting to be the speed of the speed, and Two Weeks Off (#4), who seems to be heading in the wrong direction but does have back races that make him competitive.


Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4




 
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming at 6 furlongs on turf


On turf, there are two horses that interest me. The horse to beat has to be RUMBLE DOLL (#4), who has consistently faced tougher fields in her turf sprints this year. She was effective when she ran at this level two back at Saratoga, when she just missed after weaving through traffic in the stretch. However, there is not that much speed signed on for this race, which could compromise her late kick. For that reason, I also want to use TENT CITY (#10). I know that she beat a weaker field when she won here two back, but I think she is going to be a fair price today as people downgrade her for her most recent effort. However, I’m willing to be somewhat forgiving since she was a little keen early and took a hard bump at the top of the stretch, which completely knocked her off stride. Jason Servis is so dangerous with his turf sprinters (100 trainer rating) and I think this one can rebound here. On dirt, it’s primarily a contest between the two main-track-only entrants, though Firsthand Report (#7) would also have an outside chance.


*Turf Only*
Win: 4,10
Exacta: 4,10 with 2,4,5,7,9,10,12
Trifecta Key Box: 4,10 with 4,10 with 2,5,7,9,12




 

Race 8: Allowance at 8 furlongs


I know this horse is going to be a relatively short price, but I’ve been waiting for TALE OF S’AVALL (#3) to drop down in class. This Barclay Tagg trainee has really blossomed ever since they made the decision to focus on one-turn races this spring. His Woody Stephens was a better effort than it appears, and he followed that up with the race of his life in the Dwyer, in which he just missed behind legitimate graded-stakes-level performers Fish Trappe Road and Economic Model. The slow pace of the King’s Bishop took away any shot he had of being competitive in that race, but now he’s facing a significantly softer field. A mile is the perfect distance for him, and I don’t trust his main rival, Neolithic, who was awful at Saratoga last time.


The runners that I prefer to use underneath in exactas and trifectas are River Dell (#6), who showed promise as a two-year-old and has been working steadily for his return, and the always reliable Juan and Bina (#8), who consistently picks up checks.


Exacta: 3 with 6,8
Trifecta: 3 with 6,8 with 1,5,6,8
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 6,8




 

Race 9: The Knickerbocker (G3) at 9 furlongs


On a firm turf course, I probably wouldn’t be trying to beat Jay Gatsby (#2), but this horse does not seem to be as effective over rain-softened courses, which is what he is going to encounter here. For that reason, I have to give TAKEOVER TARGET (#7) one more chance. I know that it seems as if he’s lost a step this year—and he probably has—but he’s finally going to get another chance over the kind of turf course that he loves. I can be somewhat forgiving of his Poker and Bernard Baruch, which were run over very hard courses that were more kind to horses placed closer to the pace. If Takeover Target can just get back to his Dixie effort from the spring, he can beat this field. His main rival might be Blacktype (#6), who has really improved in recent starts for Christophe Clement and can handle less-than-firm grass courses.


I'm not in love with Heart to Heart (#5), who is dangerous when he makes the lead, but is probably not as his best at this distance or over less-than-firm courses. Also, he does not have a particularly aggressive rider on his back, and Tale of Fancy to his inside is sure to show speed.


Win/Place: 7

Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,6,8
Trifecta Key Box: 6,7 with 6,7 with 1,2,5,8