by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: GYPSY JO (#3)
I haven't been blown away by the runners with experience in this race, so I want to look to the first-time starters. The one who figures to be live is Gypsy Jo, who goes out for 100-rated debut trainer Rick Violette. DRF Formulator reveals that Violette has especially strong numbers with New York-breds making their first start in sprints. Over the past five years, he is 14 for 44 (32 percent, $3.28 ROI) in such situations. This filly is bred to be quick. Her dam is a half-sister to multiple sprint-stakes winner First Passage. The other runners whom I want to use include the speedy duo of Cozzy Spring and Frost Wise as well as longshot Quick on the Draw, who ran better than it appears in a few starts over the winter.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,7,8
 
 

RACE 3: COURT DANCER (#3)
Clipthecouponannie is the horse to beat and a deserving favorite in this race. However, she's going to be an awfully short price, and I'm not sure that she actually has a huge speed-figure edge over this field. Absatootly, Court Dancer, and Wonderment have all run fast enough to challenge her on occasion. They're just all somewhat inconsistent. Of that trio, the one who I think has the best chance of pulling off an upset here is Court Dancer. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner since she is simply quicker than Clipthecouponannie in the early going. This filly has run well in all of her starts for Jason Servis, including two starts back, when she was cooked in a fast pace. Her game runner-up finish at Monmouth last time signals that she's maintained her top form.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,4
 
 

RACE 5: QUEEN OF CASTLE (#6)
The two horses to beat are Itsinthestars and Majestic Bloom, who come out of the same race on May 20. That event was won by Broken Border, who returned to beat a tougher field this week. Both of these fillies handled the seven-furlong distance last time and make plenty of sense as they return in this spot. I'm not going to take a strong stand against either one, but I do want to use longshot Queen of Castle (#6), who turns back in distance. This filly is guaranteed to be a square price due to her low-profile connections. She's actually run reasonably well in her two 2017 starts against mildly tougher groups. While she didn't handle seven furlongs at the end of last year, I think she deserves another shot going shorter here. She tends to flatten out early in her two-turn races and projects to appreciate the turnback.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5,7,11
 
 

RACE 8: POP BY (#5)
There are many ways to go in this race. The most intriguing contender is Squeeze, who returns from a lengthy layoff for Christophe Clement, who has decent numbers with this move. This filly was extremely impressive in her two starts last year, winning with much greater ease than the final margins would suggest. However, she's facing the toughest field of her career off the break, and you never know how these precocious runners will return as older horses. Clement's other runner, Gioia Stella, is a major contender and probably the horse to beat. She never had a chance on dirt last time, but her form toward the end of 2016 was strong, and her tactical speed should have her placed close to what figures to be a moderate pace. I'll certainly use her, but the runner who intrigues me most from a value perspective is Pop By. Graham Motion typically does very well with his European imports, and this filly has a right to take a major step forward in this country. You can ignore her U.S. debut, in which she didn't handle dirt in the same race that Gioia Stella exits. She showed in France that she runs her best races over firm turf, and she figures to get that kind of going on Saturday. She has the pedigree to be a nice horse given that her dam is a full-sister to the dam of Breeders' Cup Mile winner Karakontie. This is a bit of an educated guess in a confusing race, but she figures to be an enticing price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6,7