by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: DOUBLE CAST (#6)
Unless the Bill Mott-trained first-time starter shows some ability, this will be strictly a three-horse race. The runners drawn toward the inside are simply not fast enough to contend with any of the fillies exiting the fourth race May 10, who all break from the outside of the starting gate. Blenheim Palace was able to beat her two main rivals on that occasion, but she had a relatively good trip and just seemed to hang in the late stages, as she so often does. I still prefer her to Violet Blue, whom she beat squarely and fairly, but I think she may have trouble handling fifth-place finisher Double Cast this time around. Double Cast was off slowly that day, which turned out to be detrimental in a race lacking much pace. She never had a fully clear path in the stretch, but continued to run on strongly all the way through the wire. I think these longer distances agree with her and believe she has a great chance to win. The low-profile connections ensure that she'll be an overlay.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 7,8 with ALL
 
 

RACE 4: CLUTCH CARGO (#11)
The horse to beat is Leaveematthegate, whose turf races from the second half of last year make him a deserving favorite in this race. I wouldn't hold his most recent start on a sloppy track against him, and he should get back on track in this spot. The short-priced runner that I don't want is Bourbon Empire, who is going to take money off his good dirt form. However, he does not have a pedigree that suggests turf will be his preferred surface, and I think he'll be an underlay here. The runner that I think will offer the best value is Clutch Cargo, who never really got to run in his return at Aqueduct last time. He seemed unhappy racing down inside and ended up steadying out of position on the far turn. His only start at Belmont was the best of his career, and I think we'll see an improved effort today.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,3,10
 
 

RACE 6: CHURCH SOCIAL (#2)
Volatility Index is likely to go off at a short price here, but I find her hard to take after she lost to the inferior Not Taken last time despite working out an absolutely perfect trip setting a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). She can win, but I prefer others. Lido is clearly improving for Kiaran McLaughlin as she figures out the game. She put in a strong late run to get the win at Keeneland last time, but now must step up against older horses. She's dangerous, but she doesn't figure to be much of a price, either. Therefore, my top pick is Church Social. I know her last race was falling apart late, but I liked the way she rebroke once Joel Rosario angled her outside in the stretch. If you watch all of her races, this is a filly that clearly doesn't like racing inside of horses, and Rosario appeared to sense that last time. When she gets ridden properly, she's certainly good enough to beat a field like this.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with ALL
 
 

RACE 7: CUCKOO’S SALOON (#2)
I don't really get the appeal of morning-line favorite Fact Check. He's been facing weak groups of restricted 3-year-olds and meets a few more experienced older turf sprinters in this race. My top pick is Cuckoo’s Saloon, who ran well against a tougher foe in Peppermint Zip last time despite being ridden by a low-percentage rider. Today he gets a significant jockey upgrade to Rajiv Maragh. He actually ran well against tougher company in a few turf sprints last year, and I think he could fly under the radar in this spot.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,9,10

 
 

RACE 9: MAKARIOS (#4)
This is a race that should have major implications for next month's Belmont Derby Invitational. Good Samaritan ran well in his return to the races on Kentucky Derby weekend, and he is the horse to beat in this spot. However, he's been deservedly popular among horseplayers in all of his starts, and figures to go off at another short price here. He'll be on my tickets, but I think two other closers may offer better value. Ticonderoga didn't run much worse than Good Samaritan in last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. I liked his performance in the Palm Beach to start off the year, and he just seemed a little unfocused in the Transylvania last time. I think he's still improving and he should love the 9 furlongs. However, the runner I want most is the one that ran Ticonderoga down late in that Transylvania. Makarios ran exceptionally well in that race and followed it up with workmanlike win over a decent field at Keeneland last time. He's already proven that he can handle 9 furlongs and I like that he can be placed closer to the pace when necessary. He's going to be a much bigger price than the two aforementioned runners, and he may be just as talented.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 7,9
Trifecta: 4 with 7,9 with 2,6,7,8,9