by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: CASTAWAY (#2)
Street Heat got the job done last time, but the victory was hardly an impressive one. After being hard-ridden for a quarter of a mile, he basically inherited the lead once Battery ran out of charge at the eighth pole and barely withstood the rally of Investigator, who had looked to be beaten in upper stretch. I think he's vulnerable here. I realize that Castaway doesn’t win very often, but I think he's the best alternative to the favorite in here. He's been facing marginally tougher company in his recent races and makes his first start off the claim for Robertino Diodoro, who gets a 93 Trainer Rating with this move and has had success on this circuit.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,7
 
 

RACE 4: STORMIN MONARCHO (#1)
Hard Study is likely to go favored here as he steps up in class off a four-length N1X allowance win last month. However, that effort looks stronger on paper than it does when you watch the replay, which reveals that he essentially outlasted a bunch of badly tiring runners. He's run well in the past and can win this, but others figure to offer better value. I'm taking a shot against him with Stormin Monarcho. I'd like to see this horse get an aggressive ride from Luis Saez because I think he's fast enough to stick with front-runner Shuffle Up early. He ran better than it seems last time, when he got a somewhat conciliatory ride from Irad Ortiz Jr., who never made an effort to get him involved early. He's run well around one turn in the past.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,4 with ALL
 
 

RACE 5: BOOKMAN (#2)
There are plenty of runners who can win this race. The horse to beat is probably Shiraz, who tries this level for the second time in a row after disappointing as the favorite last month. However, layoff runners like Heavy Meddle and Manifest Destiny also are likely to take money and deserve strong consideration off their 2-year-old turf races. My top selection is the first-time turfer Bookman, who ran well to win his maiden at Keeneland last time. The Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He's certainly bred to handle this surface as a City Zip-sired half-brother to three turf winners.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,10
 
 

RACE 7: FLEET WEEK (#5)
This is yet another turf sprint featuring many horses with chances to win. Of those with positive turf form, Game Factor looks like a strong contender as she turns back in distance for Christophe Clement. However, some of the more interesting runners in this race are those with little to no turf experience. The one I find most intriguing is Fleet Week, who switches surfaces after making her debut on dirt for Steve Asmussen. This Tapit filly has a gigantic turf pedigree on the female side. Her dam is out of multiple Group 1-winning turfer Bint Pasha and has been a successful turf producer, having foaled U.S. turf stakes winner Mr. Ryder as well British Group 2 winner Red Duke.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,7,10
 
 

RACE 9: NOCTURNAL MISSION (#8)
Eloquent Riddle is a deserving favorite as she drops out of graded-stakes company and turns back in distance. She has run well in both of her efforts sprinting and figures to get a strong pace to close into. I have no major knocks against her, but she is likely to go off at a very short price, and there are some interesting alternatives in this race. I'm taking a shot with Nocturnal Mission, who won her debut at Aqueduct back in February. Both the runner-up and third-place finisher came back out of that race to win while improving or equaling their prior speed figures. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, Bill Mott is 6 for 13 (46 percent) with a $3.59 ROI with debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints. This filly showed real potential first time out and could be set for a step forward here.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with ALL
 
 

RACE 10: BARTLEBY (#14) / CAVALLOTTO (#3)
If he draws in off the also-eligible list, I want to bet Bartleby in this race. He ran better than the published running line suggests in his lone turf race last fall after encountering trouble at two key points. He was squeezed back coming out of the chute as the eventual winner crossed over heading into the stretch for the first time. Then, at the quarter pole, he got caught in behind some tiring runners and had to alter course back down inside to make his run. Despite having lost momentum, he really picked it up in the final furlong, passing horses quickly as the field crossed the wire. He's a horse with a very short burst of speed, so I think he'll appreciate this one-turn mile. If he scratches, I'll instead land on Cavallotto as my top selection. I just didn't want anyone out of the races won by Exclusive Zip and Whatstotalkabout, so instead I'll try this first time starter. H. James Bond knows how to win with a debut runner, and this gelding has plenty of turf pedigree as a son of good turf sire Tizway out of a dam that has produced two grass winners.

Win/Place; 14
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3,14 with 2,3,7,8,9,14