by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: HOBOE (#8)
Assuming it switches surfaces, which seems likely given the torrential downpours on Friday, this is actually a far more interesting dirt event than it would be on turf. Chad Brown returnees Follow the Signs and Minsky Moment ran reasonably well as two-year-olds and figure to take money, but the two horses to beat are main track only entrants Zonic and Broken Engagement, who come out of the same race on April 9. Both ran well that day, and Zonic in particular deserves extra credit for mounting a strong late rally over a course that was favoring speed. However, I’m most interested in a different horse out of that race. Hoboe put in a better effort than it appears and is unlikely to grab anyone’s attention. He broke a step slowly, but was traveling with the field until he got bumped and was forced to steady soon after the start. From there, he made a mild middle move into contention down inside before the race got away from him late. I think this horse possesses more speed than it appears and he doesn’t have to improve that much to turn the tables on some of his rivals.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,6,9
 
 

RACE 4: APPLE BETTY (#3)
The two main attractions in this Sheepshead Bay are Suffused and Sea Calisi. The former has been in excellent form for Bill Mott, having finished in the exacta in six straight stakes, while Sea Calisi attemps to get her 2017 campaign started off in a race she won last year. There is a distinct lack of pace in this race, which should leave the early leader’s position up for grabs. The two runners with the most early speed are Zipessa and Apple Better, and I’m more interested in the Shug McGaughey-trained filly. Apple Betty was extremely rank in her U.S. debut in the Dowager last fall at Keeneland, nearly running up on horses heels as they rounded the far turn. She got clear at the quarter pole and quickly accelerated, perhaps making the lead too soon, as she was nailed in the final strides. Now she returns from a lengthy layoff, and Shug has excellent numbers in this situation. According to DRF Formulator, over the past 5 years, he is 14 for 54 (26%) for a $2.12 ROI with runners returning from layoffs of 120-240 days in turf routes.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 6,7 with 1,2,6,7
 
 

RACE 6: TIMBER (#4)
The two horses to beat are Duquesne Whistle and Nevisian Sky, but they both have some questions to answer. Duquesne Whistle comes out of a fast race, but the only two horses to run back out of that heat have recorded significantly slower speed figures in their subsequent starts, calling the numbers into question. Nevisian Sky was very impressive, earning a field-best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his maiden win last time, but where has he been for the past three months? I’m hoping that the two of them hook up with H Man and Ransom Note early, creating enough pace for Timber to close into. This horse has been steadily improving for months, and I thought he ran very well last time when closing into a slow pace. Chris Englehart gets a 90 Trainer Rating when he runs horses back in 17-29 days – usually a good sign.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,8
 
 

RACE 9: EDEN RIDGE (#7)
Becker’s Galaxy is a deserving favorite here. While hasn’t won for Rudy, he’s run well in all of his starts for this barn. That said, this is a deep and competitive field and I think there are more interesting options at better prices. The horse that intrigues me most is Eden Ridge, who gets some serious class relief in this spot. He simply had no chance against the likes of Send It In last time, and prior to that he was facing seasoned allowance horses Testosterstone and Diversify, who each would be heavy favorites in this spot. Eden Ridge has handled a wet track on a few occasions, and should appreciate the slight turnback to a one-turn mile. He’d be quite a bargain at anything close to his morning line price.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,5,8
 
 

RACE 11: HIGHLAND SKY (#9)
If Time Test brings his British form to the United States, he will be awfully tough for this field to handle. He only made three starts in 2016, but they were all excellent efforts, as he took down a Group 2 and a Group 3, sandwiched around a good third in the Group 1 Coral Eclipse. He’s won group races at distances ranging from a mile to 1 5/16 miles, so today’s nine furlongs should not pose a problem. I’ll certainly use him strongly, but I have to take a shot against him with Highland Sky. I’ve been saying that this horse could be one of the best turf runners in the country for the better part of a year now, and he’s finally getting the chance to prove it. This horse was probably best when launching wide rallies in both the Pennine Ridge and Belmont Derby last year before his season was cut short. He got in the perfect prep at Gulfstream last time, and should not be bothered by a less than firm turf course.

Win: 9
Trifecta: 8,9 with 8,9 with 1,2,4,10
Trifecta: 9 with 2,4 with 8
 
 

RACE 12: MYSTICAL PRINCE (#10)
While I would love this longshot on the turf, since his dam was a multiple graded stakes winner on that surface, I’m still interested in him if this race should come off the grass. He ran deceptively well last time, closing resolutely through the stretch in a race dominated by the front-runners. He continued to gallop out with vigor past the wire, soon running by the winner. He’s bred to relish any added distance and may still be improving considering that he’s a relatively young four-year-old born during the southern hemisphere breeding season.

Win/Place: 10