>Visit TimeformUS for Saturday's Highlight Horse and PPs

Race 4: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Almanaar (#3) has to be considered the horse to beat as he makes his U.S. debut for Chad Brown, who has excellent numbers with his overseas shippers (100 trainer rating). As a three-year-old in France, he defeated Full Mast and Inordinate, who both found success in this country earlier in the year. However, something kept this horse away from the races for a year, and Chad Brown does not name one of his go-to riders. I'm taking a shot against him with INFINITE WISDOM (#5). I admit that I've never been this horse's biggest fan, but I cannot deny that he's improved as a five-year-old. After easily wiring two allowance fields earlier this summer, his connections took a shot at the Oceanport Stakes. Perhaps he didn't like the yielding going, but he also did not get his preferred trip, as he was forced to wait behind tiring horses coming to the top of the stretch. Today, the Pace Projector is predicting that he is the controlling speed in a situation favoring the frontrunner.  The other runner that has to be throw into the mix is Ascend (#1), but I think he’s meeting a slightly tougher field today after making an eye-catching late run up the rail at Saratoga.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4

Race 6: Claiming $40,000 at 6 furlongs on turf

If you parse through  BOW TIE AFFAIR's (#3) past performances and highlight only his turf sprints, his form is actually pretty encouraging. He's never run a bad race at distances of six furlongs or less on turf, while earning speed figures that make him competitive against today's field. His return from the layoff last time out was actually a much better effort than it appears. He was squeezed back at the start that day, which had him much farther off the pace than he otherwise would have been. He actually did well to nearly get up for third in a race where the top two finishers were just far superior to the rest. There is not that much speed this time, so I'm hoping Kendrick Carmouche can keep him closer to the pace.

 Win/Place: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,9

 Race 7: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

 Mr. Harlan (#3) is a deserving favorite on the morning line. If he repeats his last race, he is supposed to win today. However, this is a horse that has struggled with consistency in the past. Perhaps he will be able to put top efforts back to back now that he is in the barn of Linda Rice, but I have some reservations given the likely short price. 

 The horse that most will focus on out of the August 27 allowance race is Lead by Example (#8), who had to overcome some traffic trouble while altering course in the stretch. However, plenty of things still went right for him as he rode the rail for much of the way and benefited from a pace that totally collapsed in a result dominated by closers. Given a much bigger price, I prefer  THE J Y (#4) , who did all of the dirty work setting those quick early fractions before giving way in the final furlong. This Mark Hennig trainee actually didn't run that badly in his prior start when just missing a top-three finish after altering course in mid-stretch. I think he's going to appreciate getting back to a one-turn mile, and I expect his connections to revert to stalking tactics in a race that features other speed types.

Win/Place: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,8

Race 8: Allowance/Optional Claiming at 7 furlongs

The main story in this race is Get Jets (#9), who was a legitimately talented two-year-old. His Sleepy Hollow has been seriously flattered over the past year as the two horses that finished just behind him, Fish Trapped Road and Governor Malibu, have developed into the two best New York-bred three-year-olds in the country, with the former winning the Grade 2 Dwyer and the latter finishing a good fourth in the Belmont Stakes. That said, something clearly went wrong over the winter and it's taken a while to get him back to the races. Tony Dutrow gets a decent 70 trainer rating off these types of layoffs, but I have reservations about this horse at a short price. Instead, I prefer a few others. 

The obvious one is Jet Black (#2), who was probably stretched past his distance limit going nine furlongs at Saratoga. This turnback to seven furlongs should be perfect for him, and his tactical speed makes him very dangerous. I could also throw in Testosterstone (#1), who I always have a soft spot for. He’s been facing tougher open company fields and should appreciate this drop in class.

I'll be using them, but my top pick is  WEST HILLS GIANT (#8). I know that he's seen better days, but the fact of the matter is that he has been racing in one tough spot after another and finally gets some needed class relief. His race two back against seasoned open allowance horses would be good enough to win today, and his adaptable running style should serve him well here.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,9

 Race 9: The Sands Point (G2) at 9 furlongs on turf

 While I can't bring myself to pick her on top because I think it's almost a certainty that she's going to be an underlay, I do acknowledge that On Leave (#5) is the horse to beat. She hasn't yet faced a field of this caliber, but she has improved with every start and her tactical speed makes her especially dangerous in this paceless affair. 

 While I'll be using her, from a value standpoint, I prefer the two runners coming out of the Lake Placid. I obviously respect Elysea's World (#6), who had a nightmare of a trip in that race, but I think the right horse today is  DIAMOND FIELDS (#2) . Unlike many of her rivals, she is not a plodding late runner. I expect Junior Alvarado to have her placed close to the pace, if not on the lead early. Some may view her strong Lake Placid performance as a fluke, but you can throw out her Lake George, when her saddled slipped, and she had previously matched that performance at Royal Ascot when finishing second to the Group 1-placed Persuasive. She possessed the speed to win sprinting over in Europe, and I believe she can outkick this field down the stretch.

 As for the others, I think Noble Beauty is a cut below the top contenders here, though she may be improving. Of the two runners coming out of the Boiling Springs, I would upgrade Galileo’s Song (#1), who had the slightly tougher trip and may get lost in the wagering this time.

 Win: 2
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5,6 with ALL
Trifecta: 5,6 with 2 with ALL

 Race 10: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

 I'm not really enamored with any of the runners with prior turf experience. I suppose Bushmill Giant is the horse to beat after he took a step forward to finish second behind the talented Vintage Matters, but this race is pretty wide open. Given this state of affairs, I want to take a shot with first-time turfer  LIGHT THE VOW (#8). I was actually interested in this horse last time when his race was rained off the turf, and was encouraged to see him take a step forward with the stretch-out in distance. His dam was a turf winner who earned her highest speed figures on that surface, and he is a half-brother to two turf winners, so he is supposed to handle the switch to grass. Some may be inclined to stay away from these connections on this surface, but Charlton Baker has actually compiled an awesome record with his turf runners over the past year or so.

 Win/Place: 8