by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: ASTROLOGIST (#5)
There is no question that Shiraz is the horse to beat in this race. Not only is he exiting some tough stakes races down in Florida, but he already has been successful sprinting on turf and should greatly appreciate this turnback in distance. That said, he is not going to be much of a price, and there's another runner at a more generous price who also intrigues me. Like Shiraz, Astrologist won sprinting over this course as a 2-year-old, but then he wasn't seen again for more than a year. He finally returned as a 4-year-old this past February and put in a performance that is better than it seems. He was off slowly and squeezed back at the start, which is why he was so far back early. From there, he never had a chance to make up ground, but he still put in a mild late run to finish within five lengths of the winner. The horses who finished right around him are all talented runners who would be short prices in this spot. I like the turnback for him as well.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,8
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,2,6,7,8
 
 

RACE 3: PUPPY MANNERS (#7)
The Pace Projector is predicting that Ackeret will be leading this field early in a situation that favors the front-runner. Perhaps this race actually is just that simple, but I'm a little skeptical. I'm wondering if Joe Parker can continue the shocking success that he enjoyed at Aqueduct now that we're at Belmont Park. The logical other horse is Tug of War, but he is such a “last time was the time” horse, as Andy Serling would say. Since I don't love either of the favorites, I'm taking a shot with Puppy Manners. I know his recent form leaves something to be desired, but he was on a dead rail last time going a distance that is too far for him. He's run well at Belmont in the past, and I find it interesting that Chris Englehart, who trained him to success last year, claims him back.

Win/Place: 7
 
 

RACE 4: SMOKIN HOT FACTOR (#5)
The deserving favorite in this race is Storm Team. He's run well in all three of his starts, and this six-furlong distance should suit him well. He ran well enough against next-out stakes winner Secretary At War last time, but two turns may have been a tad too far for him. However, he's not the kind of short price that I want to bet, and there are other interesting options at better prices. However, those options do not include fellow short prices Wantztbwicked or El Talento. The former does not have the most obvious turf pedigree, and Chad Brown rarely makes this turf-to-dirt move with second-time starters who ran so well first out, and Todd Pletcher is just 1 for 17 over the past five years with horses returning from this type of layoff in turf sprints. Instead, I'm intrigued by a longshot. Smokin Hot Factor should absolutely love this switch to turf. The Factor is a 25 percent turf sire in his young stallion career, and all four of this dam's foals have won on turf, including stakes performers Action Andy and Phlash Phelps. The fact that he hasn't lifted a hoof on dirt doesn't really bother me and should only ensure that he's a generous price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7,9
 
 

RACE 6: SNAP DECISION (#8)
I haven’t been too impressed with any of the older horses in this race. The two who are likely to take the most money are Conquest Sandman and Tricked Up. Both ran reasonably well at Gulfstream in their most recent starts, but they've worked out very good trips when they've been successful. Snap Decision, on the other hand, might be the kind of horse to make an impact in graded stakes races later this year. He displayed an eye-catching turn of foot when winning his maiden and then did well to finish third behind the more accomplished Ticonderoga last time out against stakes company. If he gets any pace to close into, he'll be tough to hold off.

Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 1,3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 8 with 1,4,6 with 1,3,4,6,7
 
 

RACE 8: HAMMERS VISION (#9)
The two most accomplished turf sprinters in the field are Disco Partner and Calgary Cat. I have the utmost respect for what each of these runners accomplished during their 2016 campaigns, as they were routinely knocking on the door against some of the best turf sprinters in the country. However, they both are coming off significant layoffs, and I'm not sure that either one is at his very best going seven furlongs. Given those concerns and that there is very little speed for them to close into, I'm taking a shot against them with Hammers Vision. I've always wanted to see what this horse could do turning back in distance on turf. He's done well sprinting on dirt but has primarily contested races at a mile or farther on turf. He's been competitive in most of his starts over this course, and he should work out a great stalking trip from his outside post.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 9 with 5,8 with 1,3,5,8