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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs

There are some intriguing two-year-olds in this race. The likely favorite figures to be Newman (#1), who lost to Hopeful and Champagne winner Practical Joke first time out. He figures to show speed from the rail and is certainly bred to handle the stretch-out to a mile. He may have a pace advantage today, but if there’s one other horse that could show more speed, I believe that will be OUTRUN (#2). This Todd Pletcher-trained colt got a somewhat uncomfortable trip in his debut, pinned down on the rail for the entire race. At a few points, he appeared reluctant to go through a tight hole, throwing his head up when John Velazquez got into him. However, he did finish well and gallop out decently once finally clear in the last eighth of a mile. This colt is bred to run all day, and Pletcher, who gets a 100 trainer rating with second-time starters, notably adds blinkers to help focus him.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming at 7 furlongs on turf

I suppose Hothersal (#5) is the horse to beat as he gets some class relief while dropping out of three straight graded stakes races. Seven furlongs may actually be the perfect distance for him, considering that he’s run his best races at or around a mile but has handled shorter trips than this on occasion. That said, I want to give TOMBELAINE (#6) another chance in this country and am hoping to get a price at or around his morning line odds. This colt showed real quality in Europe, losing a close decision to multiple Group 1 winner Gleneagles as a two-year-old before finishing a decent fifth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas at three. He appeared to be traveling well in his stateside debut at Gulfstream before something apparently went awry. He’s now coming back at the same level, and I love that they’re keeping him sprinting this time, since that was what he did best in his Irish starts.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,5

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight at 6.5 furlongs

I’m not seriously trying to beat STONECOLDFOX (#6), who is far and away the horse to beat at a deserving short price in this spot. This filly was away awkwardly in her debut, spotting the field a good four or five lengths. She rushed up along the backstretch, forcing her rider to tap on the brakes heading into the turn. Then she actually made a second move up to challenge for the lead at the top of the stretch, and had every right to tire late. Linda Rice, a 59-rated debut trainer, gets a stellar 100 trainer rating with second-time starters.

However, I also want to use FROSTY GAL (#3), both as a backup and behind my top pick in exactas and trifectas. This filly appears to be more of a dirt horse, but just never really got a chance to run last time as she was rank behind a slow pace early and had to check a couple of times. I’m hoping Jose Lezcano can get her in the game earlier today.

Win: 6
Place: 3
Exacta Box: 3,6
Trifecta: 6 with 3 with 1,4,5,7,9
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4,5,7,9 with 3

Race 8: The Pebbles at 8 furlongs on turf

This is a very interesting edition of this race, and there are many fillies for whom you could make reasonable cases. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but there really aren’t many confirmed frontrunners in this field, so I wonder if they’ll actually engage each other early. That’s why I want to take a shot with BELIEVE IN BERTIE (#2), who actually does run her best races on the front end. This filly has really improved in recent months, and earned the highest speed figure in the field last time with her 118 runner-up finish to four-time winner Queen Caroline. She doesn’t necessarily need the lead, so I’m not overly concerned about Louisville First potentially running off early. Brad Cox has been having an awesome meet and I think he can get another winner here.

There are two other two fillies that I want to focus on in exactas and trifectas. Ancient Secret (#4) burst onto the scene this summer with three impressive wins in New York, culminating with a Grade 2 win in the Lake George at Saratoga. However, she utterly bombed as the odds-on favorite when shipped up to Woodbine last time. Chad Brown claims she wasn't herself that day, and I'm inclined to believe him given the quick turnaround after that race. She's very much in my play, as will be Ultra Brat (#5). While we got a great price on her last time, I can't deny that she significantly improved on turf, running her final furlong in 21.99 seconds, according to Trakus. If she can handle the stretch-out, I think she's talented enough to compete with this field.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,4,5
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 7,8,9,11,12
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 4,5,7,8,9,11,12
Trifecta: 2 with 7,8,9,11,12 with 4,5

Race 9: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

In a race where I’m just not in love with the horses that have been running in the conditioned claiming races on this circuit, I’ll instead take a shot with a runner dropping in class. SPACE ODDITY (#6) has simply been facing slightly better horses in his tries against New York-bred allowance company. Last time, he may have been too close to a pace that collapsed, and we’ve seen two horses involved in that pace come back and run better in their next starts. I believe this horse can do better in his second start for Mike Maker, and he figures to be a decent price.

Win/Place: 6