Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 7 furlongs

Despite the compact field, there are a number of interesting players in this race. The conversation should probably start with Fillet of Sole (#4), who made an eye-catching late run in his most recent start at Saratoga. He did have some trouble at the start of the race, but he was still very green, taking himself farther off the pace than was necessary. While he was making up ground very quickly through the stretch, the race did feature a fast pace up front. The trainer switch to Todd Pletcher is significant, but it's also going to drive down his price.

I prefer CONDO Prince (#5), who actually beat Fillet of Sole when both were making their debuts at Belmont. That day he rallied from well back in the pack, but last time he showed much more early speed, rushing up into contention on the backstretch. In fact, rider Angel Arroyo appeared to get carried away, putting this horse to the whip on the far turn even though he had no place to go while trapped down inside. He was steadied and bumped around at the top of the stretch, but nevertheless finished up strongly behind a well-regarded winner. He figures to love the extra distance and gets a huge rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz.

Win: 5

Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6

Race 7: The G2 Gallant Bloom at 6.5 furlongs

I have to go with WONDER GAL (#7) in the Gallant Bloom. I realize that this Leah Gyarmati trainee is better known for races that she's lost rather than races that she's won, but the fact of the matter is that she has been a graded stakes-quality performer for her entire racing career and seems to finally be putting it all together at the end of her four-year-old season. Her most recent romp at Saratoga was legitimately fast, and if she repeats that kind of effort here, this field cannot beat her. I love the fact that she drew the outside post position, so Irad should be able to perch himself just outside of main rival Hot City Girl (#3). I'm a little concerned about the prospect of a wet track, since Wonder Gal has run her very best races over fast going, but most of the fillies in this race have to address those same concerns.

Win: 7

Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,6

Trifecta: 7 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,6

Race 9: The G1 Vosburgh at 6 furlongs

I'm not really trying to beat A. P. Indian (#5) this time. However, if the surface does indeed come up sloppy, his connections have stated that they're likely to scratch. That scenario figures to help DANNIE'S DECEIVER (#8) more than anyone else. In three runs over sealed tracks, he’s earned two wins and a second, which is better than he’s done in all of his fast track races. It would have seemed unlikely that he could compete against a field of this quality just a few months ago, but he’s made huge strides over his past few starts. He defeated a strong allowance field on Belmont Stakes day in June, and then made an eye-catching run from far back to nearly win in July. He was still dismissed at 40/1 in the Forego—his stakes debut—but he managed to pass more than half the field while rallying from last to be fourth. The fact that he was able to accomplish such a feat over a fast track speaks to the form that he’s in right now. If there’s one horse in this race that could surprise a lot of people and step up to hit the board—or even win, if A. P. Indian is absent—I believe it’s him.

With A. P. Indian:

Win/Place: 8

Exacta: 5 with 7,8

Trifecta: 5 with 7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8

Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,6 with 7,8

Without A. P. Indian:

Win/Place: 8

Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,6,7

Trifecta: 7,8 with 2,3,7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8

Race 10: The G1 Beldame at 9 furlongs

The Beldame is Forever Unbridled's (#2) race to lose and it’s as simple as that. However, if you’re looking for any chinks in her armor, you could point to a pace situation that is somewhat muddled. Joel Rosario got in trouble taking her too far back off the pace in the Phipps, and he must avoid making that same mistake again.

If John Velazquez and Luis Saez on the two outside fillies are a little concerned about stamina going this nine-furlong distance, I wonder if they'll let Javier Castellano get to the front on PENWITH (#4), who was a frontrunner at one time. Javier will surely see that she's run her best races when placed on or near the lead, and I expect him to revert to those tactics here. Penwith's performance in the Royal Delta from last winter would give her a legitimate chance here, and even her Delaware Handicap puts her in the mix despite the fact that race dynamics worked against her that day. I believe it’s significant that Kiaran McLaughlin is taking a shot in this race, and she’s my long shot selection.

Win/Place: 4

Exacta Box: 2,4

Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL

Trifecta: 2,4 with 1,5,7 with 2,4