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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 3: The Iroquois at 6.5 furlongs
Hot City Girl (#1) is likely to go favored off the strength of her Union Avenue win at Saratoga, in which she beat the two rivals drawn just outside of her today. However, it must be noted that she was afforded a significant tactical advantage that day. Court Dancer (#2) was supposed to join her on the front end, but that mare had a disastrous start and never got anywhere near the lead, which left Hot City Girl in a position to set a slow pace (color-coded in blue).
That worked against QUEZON (#3), who actually did well to make a ran at Hot City Girl in the stretch but could not overcome that one's pace advantage. Since then, Hot City Girl has missed a start, whereas Quezon put in a strong runner-up effort in the Gallant Bloom a few weeks ago. That race came over a wet track, which she typically handles with aplomb, and she's likely to get a similar surface to work with today. If Court Dancer keeps Hot City Girl honest up front, I believe Quezon is the most likely winner.
At a big price, I could also throw in the three-year-old Frosty Margarita (#6). I love that this filly is finally getting turned back in distance after a series of tries in route races. She actually ran some pretty fast races for her age last winter and I wonder if she’s ready to take a step forward as she gets back to what she does best.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,6 with 1,2,4,6
Race 6: The Mohawk at 8.5 furlongs on turf
The old crew is back at it again. Kharafa (#1), King Kreesa (#9), and Lubash (#7) have gathered to contest the Mohawk for what could be the final time they all meet on the racetrack. However, unlike in past years, this is not a three-horse race, as relative youngsters Macagone (#2), Tapitation, and Offering Plan (#6) have been threatening to overtake their elders all season. Pace should play an important role in the outcome, since need-the-lead runner Macagone is going to have to deal with the rabbit, Latigo Trail, who is certain to get a more aggressive ride today.
This works to the advantage of a few runners, but I believe the horse that benefits most is TAPITATION (#8). He was forced to be taken out of his game when ridden more aggressively at Saratoga two back, and then last time he was under-aggressively handled as his rider clearly expected a quicker pace to develop ahead of him. Today, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and I believe this colt is ready to ascend to the top of this division.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,6,7,9
Trifecta: 8 with 1,6,7 with 1,2,6,7,9
Race 7: The Sleepy Hollow at 8 furlongs
An intriguing field has assembled for this Sleepy Hollow, and, as in the previous race, pace figures to play an important role in the outcome. Given the presence of so many horses stretching out from sprints, many of whom showed speed in those races, it's no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. The horse that should benefit most from such a scenario is recent maiden winner TELLMEAFOOKYSTORY (#10). In his first couple of starts, this horse finished up like a horse that would appreciate more ground, and he confirmed that theory last time out. After steadying at the start, he found himself well off the pace in the early going. However, he successfully launched a prolonged run starting at the half-mile pole, eventually wearing down the leaders. The horse that he defeated, Heavy Meddle, is no slouch, and he earned a competitive 95 speed figure, which may be good enough to win here.
I'll use him with Runaway Lute (#7), who is better than his Hopeful effort, Mr. Buff (#9), who also broke his maiden impressively last time, and Hamptons Holiday (#3), who is bred to stretch out.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,7,8,9
Race 8: The Empire Distaff at 8.5 furlongs
While I recognize that Bar of Gold (#1) and Wonder Gal (#2) are obviously the two horses to beat, I don't really want to bet either one at short prices. I'm not totally convinced about Bar of Gold's ability to get a mile and a sixteenth even though she does figure to appreciate the drop in class. Wonder Gal would be a cinch to win this race if she got back to her return effort at Saratoga this summer, but she wasn't the same horse in the Gallant Bloom. She's underperformed on wet tracks in the past, and rain in the forecast is a concern.
I'm looking for an alternative, and the horse that I want is HIGHWAY STAR (#6). She's a bit slower than the two aforementioned fillies, but I think she's improving at the right time. She was defeated by today's rival Super Surprise at Saratoga, but Highway Star ran a deceptively strong race that day. She handled a sloppy track in her debut victory, and she's drawn well outside of the other speeds today. I don't mind the rider switch from her last start, and I believe she'll offer value.
One other horse that I will try to get into the trifecta at a huge price is Mecke’s Madalyn (#4). This filly ran fairly well last time despite getting steadied in traffic in the stretch. Today she is getting a huge rider switch to Jose Lezcano and may be set for her best effort yet.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,5,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5,8
Trifecta: 1,2 with 6 with 1,2,4,5,8
Race 11: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs on turf
Assuming this race stays on turf, I’m interested in a long shot. I know that RECONSIDER IT (#11) has yet to be that competitive or run a particularly fast race, but I think this filly has more ability than is readily apparent. It's worth watching her last trip closely, since she never was given much of a chance. After breaking slowly, she was rated well off a slow pace (color-coded in blue) and then had to wait too long to peel out into the clear coming off the far turn. She was left with a ton of ground to make up and actually did well to get up for fifth. I don't think we've seen the best of this filly yet, and I'm hoping that the addition of blinkers will have her placed closer to the pace. If she can break cleanly today, I think she can have a major say in the outcome.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,5,6