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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: The Frizette

Adirondack winner Nonna Mela is the horse to beat, but my top pick is second-time starter YELLOW AGATE (#4). This filly comes out of a very fast race—one of the fastest two-year-old maiden races run in New York so far this year. While she got a very good trip that day in a race that featured a quick pace, she showed plenty of professionalism and appears more than ready to make this step up into stakes company. She is supposed to get some solid stamina pedigree from her dam, so I’m not that concerned about the stretch-out in distance. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and she certainly has the right running style to capitalize on it.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3

Race 5: The Kelso

I’ll make no bones about it: I’ve never liked ANCHOR DOWN (#4) very much. However, I cannot deny that he’s taken a step forward since returning to New York this year and has become a better horse than I’ve given him credit for. His performance in the Met Mile has too often been overlooked. He did all the dirty work that day and put away everyone in the field except Frosted while gamely holding on for second. The rail post position was his undoing in the Vanderbilt as he was out of position the entire way. I expect Javier Castellano to send him to the front, and I think he can beat this field at a square price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6,7

Race 6: The Flower Bowl

I’m not trying to beat LADY ELI (#5) this time. I thought she might be a little vulnerable coming off the layoff last time, but I don’t even think I was necessarily right about her needing the race. In some ways, that Ballston Spa was the best race she ever ran. Today Lady Eli finds herself in a much more comfortable, and familiar, position. Unless she finds trouble, I don’t see how they beat her.

Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,6 with 4

Race 7: The Belmont Turf Sprint

It’s worth watching POWER ALERT’s (#6) last race. He didn’t just break a step slowly—he stumbled badly after the start and lost a good five lengths on the rest of the field. He actually put in quite an effort to close as well as he did, so I can’t hold it against him that he flattened out in the final furlong. I know the six furlongs is a stretch for him, but I like the rider switch to Mike Smith and would not be surprised to see this horse outrun his odds.

The other runner that intrigues me is SALLAL (#7). It’s too early to tell exactly how good he is, but this might be the right time to take a shot with him. Last time, he was bet down to favoritism in the Laurel Dash, and just never was given any chance to run. As soon as the gates opened, nothing went right, and you can basically throw the race out. At anything close to his morning line price, I’m on board.

Win/Place: 6,7
Exacta Key Box: 6,7 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10
Trifecta: 2,3,5,9,10 with 2,3,5,9,10 with 6,7

Race 8: The Champagne

FAVORABLE OUTCOME (#5) was one of the most impressive two-year-old winners at the Saratoga meet. It’s rare to see two-year-olds finish up through the stretch the way he did, drawing off to a six-length victory, while the runner-up put an additional 8+ lengths between himself and the rest of the field. The fact that he ran his final eighth of a mile in 12 seconds flat suggests that he shouldn’t have much trouble with the added distance, and he’s my top pick.

However, at a much bigger price, I’m also interested in THIRST FOR VICTORY (#2) as a potential upset candidate. I know that his maiden win came back as a slow race, but there are a few things to note about that. There was a torrential downpour prior to that race, which had forced post time delays, and the card was actually cancelled after this race was run. A number of horses have come out of that race to run significantly faster in their very next starts (an average of over 18 points faster), so it’s reasonable to assume that this was a much stronger race than the 82 speed figure suggests. Don’t dismiss this horse if he’s going off at generous odds.

Win: 5
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2,3,6

Race 9: The Hill Prince

AMERICAN PATRIOT (#3) did not get a very good ride in the Secretariat. For whatever reason, William Buick was incredibly impatient and sent this horse through to make a middle move along the rail leaving the backstretch. He ended up getting stuck in behind a wall of horses and had flattened out by the time he got clear late. It was much the same story last time in the Commonwealth Derby. Today, I’m hoping that Mike Smith can maneuver him outside of runners. When this horse gets a decent trip, he can unleash quite a stretch run, as he showed in his allowance win in June and in his track-record-setting win in the Kent.

The horse that I’m perhaps most interested is Chad Brown’s least-heralded entrant, ANNALS OF TIME (#6). This horse hinted that he might be pretty special in his debut last fall when he ran down Inspector Lynley, who has obviously proven to be of this quality in subsequent starts. He finally made it back to the races in early September at Saratoga and put in an effort that is much stronger than it might appear at first glance. Don’t let his scant list of accomplishments fool you—this is a serious racehorse.

Win: 3,6
Exacta Box: 3,6
Exacta Key Box: 3,6 with 1,5,10
Trifecta Key Box: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,5,10

Race 10: The Jockey Club Gold Cup

The horse that interests me most is HOPPERTUNITY (#3). I know that he has developed a reputation for picking up minor awards in these races, but I think that’s primarily due to the fact that he’s been facing the likes of California Chrome and Beholder for the past year. He wasn’t quite able to get past Effinex in the Clark Handicap last year, but I think the stretch-out to a mile and a quarter suits this horse. I don’t think he got the credit he deserved for his strong third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup, in which he had to overcome a much wider trip than Mubtaahij. Since returning to the states, he was hindered by a slow pace in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita, and then was no match for an otherworldly California Chrome in the Pacific Classic. It feels as if he could go off as the third choice in this race, and I believe he’s the most likely winner.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 1,2,6