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By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs
Mo Town (#4) is likely to go off as the favorite, and I do not deny that he is the horse to beat. However, now he must stretch out an extra two furlongs, and I think there's another horse in this race that figures to be more appreciative of the added ground. That's SPIETH (#5), who also made his debut on a Saturday at Saratoga, kicking off his career at the demanding seven furlong distance. He basically ran like a horse that needed its first start—he was off slowly and a little green racing between horses. However, once they straightened away in the stretch, he came with a determined late rally to get up for fourth and he continued to gallop out strongly. This horse's dam was a stakes-winning router, and I believe we'll see an improved performance today.
I would also use the aforementioned top pick with Everybodyluvsrudy (#2), who never had a chance to make a late impact in the slow-paced Hopeful, and Your Secret’s Safe (#6), who has a right to move forward in his second start.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6
Race 7: Allowance at 10 furlongs on turf
Pace will have a major impact on the outcome of this race, since the field is primarily composed of late-running plodders. The horse most likely to show early speed would appear to be Zennor (#1), but he is somewhat of a question mark at this 10-furlong distance. I'll certainly use him, but I believe that the runner just to his outside, MISSION DRIVEN (#2), is more talented. After a disappointing seasonal debut, he got back on track last time in a performance that was better than it appears. Javier Castellano was forced to take him well off the slow pace (color-coded in blue) in order to save ground, and he just got going too late. This horse has more tactical speed if Irad Ortiz chooses to use it, and has run speed figures going back to last fall that would beat this field.
The only two of the so-called “plodders” that I would want to use along with my top selection are Patterson Cross (#4), who is bred to relish the added ground as a full-brother to marathon stakes winner Newsdad, and Hunter O’Riley (#10), who is in great form right now but was unlucky at the post position draw.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,10
Race 8: The Noble Damsel at 8 furlongs on turf
There is not much pace in this Noble Damsel, which figures to benefit Zindaya (#6). She's been ridden from just off the pace in recent starts, but one would imagine that her connections would have to revert to the front-running tactics that have worked for her in the past. She's the horse to beat, but her stablemate, Mrs McDougal (#5), is a formidable rival. She handles the distance and should appreciate the slight drop in class after being defeated in a couple of Grade 1 tries.
I'll certainly use those two, but my top pick is MY SWEET GIRL (#8). I realize that she's the third or fourth most likely winner of this race, but I believe her price will make her playable. This filly has really improved this year, especially since Barclay Tagg has focused on races at or around today's one-mile distance. When she's right, she can produce a devastating late kick. She wasn't able to fully unleash that closing speed last time when buried down on the rail, but she should get a clear run, having drawn outside today.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,6,7
Race 9: Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs on turf
Speeding Comet (#5) has undoubtedly run the fastest races sprinting on turf, but this sudden drop in for a $25,000 tag seems awfully suspicious for connections that have been struggling in recent months. While I respect proven turf sprinters like Cinder Block (#4) and The Imposter (#7), I'm most interested in first-time turfer WHATEVERYOUWANT (#2). There just isn't much early speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that Whateveryouwant will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the frontrunner. Mike Maker, who gets a 95 trainer rating first off the claim, does especially well with new acquisitions moving to turf for the first time. This son of Kantharos actually has some sneaky turf pedigree, and I think he has a legitimate chance to pull off the upset.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,7
Race 10: Maiden Claiming at 6 furlongs on turf
Well, here's my crazy idea of the day. None of the runners that are going to be short prices in this race are very talented, so I'm not afraid to take a shot against them. PERSKY'S SPIRIT (#5) is the sort of horse that most handicappers would immediately disregard, but let's take a closer look at her. This year, she's shown subtle signs of life, flashing good early speed in a few races, culminating in her highest speed figure yet last time out. Her lone turf race is worth a viewing, since she was off slowly and then barely asked for run at any point by her rider, who seemingly gave up all hope after a poor start. She was probably overmatched that day anyway, but I think she deserves another shot on grass now that she's in better form. Silent Name is a turf sire, her dam has produced a turf winner, and she has a turfy action to her stride. Given a somewhat murky pace scenario, I'm hoping that Samuel Camacho sends her to the front and tries to wire the field.
I’ll try to spread as much as possible when playing this race, using Persky’s Spirit in all positions, both on top of and underneath the logical contenders like Champagne Therapy (#1), Palladian Bridge (#2), Sea Pebble (#6), and Flying K C (#11).
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6,11
Trifecta: 1,2,6,11 with 1,2,6,11 with 5