by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: FOREIGN AFFAIR (#4)
I’m not in love with the two horses who are going to take the most money, Game Factor and Assertive. The former is unproven over sprint distances, and the latter is making an odd surface switch considering that she doesn’t have a very strong grass pedigree. I want someone else, so I’m going to take a shot with Foreign Affair. She actually ran better than it appears in her lone turf start last summer at Saratoga. The pace of that race was very slow (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and this horse did well to make up ground in the stretch. Third-place finisher Bellavais, who was also closing that day, has since come back to perform well in stakes. It’s hard to trust runners off long layoffs like this, but she feels like the kind of horse who could get ignored here.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,8
 
 

RACE 5: APPEALING BRIEFS (#5)
I’m not sure that we’re actually going to get his 5-1 morning line, but I think Appealing Briefs is a very likely winner of this race. His turf form over the winter at Gulfstream was strong, and he was facing much tougher fields in those races. He even ran better than it seems in his last turf race in New York back in November at Aqueduct, where he was wide every step of the way. If this horse is ready to run off the layoff, he’s supposed to win his maiden today. Minsky Moment and Zonic do have turf pedigree, but they will take money based on their dirt races. The other interesting runner to throw in at a huge price is Millie’s Party Boy, who made a premature move in his lone start last fall and may have some ability.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,8,9,11,12
 
 

RACE 7: BATTLEMENT (#3)
Animal Appeal may wire this field since she’s faster than this group, but she’s a little hard to trust off her season debut, in which she just appeared to be out of sorts. If she doesn’t show up again, this race becomes wide open. I’ll try to beat the favorite with Battlement, who may appreciate this turnback in distance. She ran some of her best races going short in Europe, and she’s better than her one U.S. turf start would suggest. Bill Mott is one of the few trainers who has strong numbers with turf turnbacks. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 49 (27 percent, $2.80 ROI) in such situations.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6,8
 
 

RACE 8: CATAPULT (#6)
Projected probably is the most talented runner in this race, and he may win at a short price. He ran well, albeit with a perfect trip, in the Dixie last time, beating his stablemate Catapult. I’m not really against Projected in this spot, but I do think that his stablemate will narrow the margin today. It looks like Catapult will finally find himself in a situation where they can just let him set the pace. This horse tends to get very rank in his races, as he did in the Dixie, and often it’s better to just let these horses run off and get comfortable.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,4,7
 
 

RACE 9: LIFE IN SHAMBLES (#1)
Threefiveindia is the horse to beat off his 2016 form, but he was pretty disappointing in his 2017 debut. He appeared to be sitting a perfect trip perched off the speeds, but he just didn’t go on when asked for his best in the stretch. If he doesn’t improve off that effort here, he could find himself in deep water. I think Life in Shambles finds himself in a good spot here. He got back into form last time but simply couldn’t match strides with the likes of Stallwalkin’ Dude. This is a softer spot, and Life in Shambles seems to run his best races at Belmont Park. I expect him to sit a good trip stalking what should be a moderate pace.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,8,9
 
 

RACE 10: STREET SHARK (#6)
This is one of the most wide-open races on the card. I decided to go with the horse who I think will offer the best value, and that’s Street Shark. I know it’s been a while since he’s won a race, but this horse has just been overmatched in so many of his turf starts, and he’s finally placed in a realistic spot here. Seven furlongs should be a good distance for him, and he figures to be forwardly placed in a race that is projected to favor horses on or near the lead.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5,8,10,12