by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 2: GRANDE BESO (#1)
The likely favorite is Madame Ambassador, who is dropping in class out of maiden special weight company. This is the easiest field she’s faced, but I did not love her most recent start and feel that there is at least one runner in this field that might be able to produce a superior effort here. That’s Grande Beso. I know she finished a nose behind today’s rival Pana Elianne when they last met on May 3, but Grande Beso was in traffic racing behind horses for much of the last three-eighths of that race, and would have finished closer had she ever gotten into the clear. I would just throw out her last dirt race and recognize that she is an improved turf horse.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4
 
 

RACE 6: POSSE NEEDED (#1)
My main opinion in this race is that I think likely favorite Dancing All Night is beatable. She ran a respectable race at Churchill in her debut after breaking slowly. She made a wide move into contention on the far turn before flattening out in the stretch. The problem with that race is that it came against a very weak field, and she’s facing a couple of tougher foes in this spot. Presumptuous is the horse to beat off her last effort, but she tends to hang in her races and isn’t the most reliable win prospect. That’s why I’ve landed on Posse Needed. I don’t have full confidence that she is still the same promising filly we saw in her lone 2-year-old start, but I do think there’s a chance she could improve with the stretch-out in distance. Her dam was a confirmed router who won at 1 1⁄4 miles on dirt and even ran fine in marathon races on occasion. If she improves in her second start off the layoff, I think she can win as the likely third choice in this field.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,5,6
 
 

RACE 7: TOWN CLASSIC (#2)
It seems there are many ways to go in this race, but I can find more horses that I don’t want than those I’m actually interested in betting. I Get Smooth goes out for Jorge Navarro, who has not had much success at NYRA; Noble and True hasn’t run that well in any of his recent starts and may not be quick enough for this distance; and Sammy Wonder Stone has done his best running against weaker competition. Therefore, I’ve landed on Town Classic, who is one of the few runners in this race that classes up against this field and handles the distance. Each of his last two races came against some pretty stiff competition. He actually ran quite well last time, nearly running down Westfest, who returned to break the track record for six furlongs at Churchill Downs in his next start. I think he’s a great bet at anything close to his 8-1 morning line odds.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
 
 

RACE 8: ABOUT THAT BASE (#4)
There are a lot of questions to be answered in this race. The interesting runners are the lightly raced fillies in this group, but many have yet to prove that they’re up to the task of beating winners. I’m looking for a horse that may get overlooked in the wagering, which is why I’m picking About That Base. Both of this filly’s turf races are a bit better than they look, and I think there’s a reasonable chance that she’s a much better turf horse than dirt horse. She was in tight behind horses for much of the run around the far turn in the Chelsey Flower, where she was just facing better horses. Then, at Aqueduct last fall, she overcame a wide trip around both turns and actually did well to be second that day. She should work out a good trip stalking the pace.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,8,12