by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: SPOTTY ZEALOUS (#3)
I don’t trust either of the morning-line favorites in this race, one of whom goes out for Linda Rice and the other of whom was just claimed away from that barn. Z Royal returned from nearly a full year off to bomb as the 4-5 favorite last time and now attempts to rebound for Jason Servis just six weeks later. The drop in class does not inspire confidence. Hard Hitter’s recent performances have not been quite so dismal, but he’s lost at short prices. I’m taking a shot against both of them with Spotty Zealous. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll be in front in a situation favoring the early leader. While this is not a positive trainer switch, this horse did run a bit better than it seems last time. He broke a step slowly, and Manny Franco rushed him to get the lead before abruptly altering tactics and applying the brakes. He ended up stalking and could not catch the winner over a speed-favoring surface.

Scratched.
 
 

RACE 5: ABOUT THAT BASE (#6)
Assuming this race stays on the turf, the deserving favorite will be Bareeqa. This filly gets back in against New York-breds for the first time since last summer but has really improved in recent starts. Last time, she was racing far back behind a very slow early pace (indicated by blue color-coding in PPs) and did well to rally for the win. This is not a much tougher spot than that one, and I think she’s the most likely winner. That said, there are some intriguing 3-year-olds in the group, and the one I want is About That Base. This filly started twice on turf last year and ran better than it seems both times. She was stymied in behind horses for much of her trip in the Chelsey Flower and then was three to four wide around the turns in her allowance race in November. Todd Pletcher’srunners have been running well at this Belmont meet.

Off the turf.
 
 

RACE 6: LAKESIDE SUNSET (#5)
I suppose Abounding Spirit is the horse to beat off her win against New York-bred N1X allowance company last time, but I’m skeptical about her repeating that effort. She was bet down to 5-2 odds in that race despite looking like a much longer price based on her form. I’m instead going with Lakeside Sunset. She was meeting tougher competition last time and did not get her preferred forwardly placed trip after getting squeezed back in the opening furlong. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead early, and I think she can lead this field wire to wire.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6,7
 
 

RACE 8: LOYAL HEART (#11)
Nouvelle Vague figures to go off as the short-priced favorite here, and I don’t have any major knocks against her. It’s a good sign that Linda Rice is raising her in class off the claim, and she’s run plenty of speed figures that are just faster than what her competitors are capable of producing. While I’m not suggesting that she’s vulnerable, I do have to use the longshot Loyal Heart if she draws into this race. I sound like a broken record with this filly, but I once again wish I could say that her connections had named a more capable rider. In any event, she actually ran exceptionally well last time given her trip, getting restrained early before making a middle move to the lead on the backstretch. If she works out any kind of decent trip here, she certainly can finish in the top three at a generous price. 

Update: On dirt, Northern Screamer becomes the likely favorite, but I'm a bit skeptical of her stepping up in class off a blowout win against much weaker competition. Any moisture left in the surface will help her, but I think she's going to be an underlay regardless. I liked Loyal Heart on turf, and I'm sticking with her on dirt. She's just in career form right now, and she, too, appears to move up over a wet track.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 5,6,13,15