by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: COMET SIXTY TWO (#5)
The two classiest runners in this race are Bargaining Table and Speak Up Sailor. Both make sense here, but Bargaining Table is typically more effective at Aqueduct, and Speak Up Sailor goes out for a trainer that has not had great success on the NYRA circuit. I think I can beat them both with Comet Sixty Two. This mare put in a very solid effort in her return to New York last time, making a strong late run through the lane in a race that was dominated by a wire-to-wire winner who was able to set slow fractions (color-coded in blue). Comet Sixty Two is best around one turn, so I think this flat mile distance suits her perfectly.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,6
 
 

RACE 3: DRIVING ME CRAZY (#7)
I don’t completely trust the two runners dropping steeply in class here, Souper Knight and Draxhall Woods. The former has had success sprinting in the past, but he seems to have lost much of his speed and Rudy Rodriguez has poor numbers in this situation. That’s not the case for Michelle Nevin, who does well with these 50 percent dropdowns, but Draxhall Woods is going to have to perform better than he has in recent starts. I’m trying the main speed Driving Me Crazy. The Pace Projector is predicting he will have an advantage up front. His last race can be tossed out, since he blew the start and was very rank in traffic for the first quarter of a mile.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,6
 
 

RACE 6: ADMIRALS COVE (#9)
This is perhaps the most interesting race on the card, since there are so many ways to go. It’s essential to watch a replay of the ninth race on April 30, since many of these are exiting that maiden heat. While Cerise’s Prince ran the best race that day and Ninety One Assault had some minor traffic trouble while rallying for third, I think there’s a longshot that finished well behind them who deserves a long look. Admirals Cove had trouble at the start, was reserved at the back of the pack, and began to launch a wide, early move around the far turn. He reached contention at the quarter pole, but then seemed to want to duck in and was racing very greenly through the stretch. Angel Arroyo seemed unable to ride him properly and basically just eased him to the finish. If this horse can run more professionally this time, we could see a vastly improved effort. He is a half-brother to four turf winners and is by good turf sire Hat Trick, so he is supposed to love this surface.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,6,8,10,11,12
Trifecta Key Box: 3,9 with 3,9 with 6,8,10,11,12
 
 

RACE 8: PAGLIACCI (#4)
Jimmy Jerkens has two runners in this race that are coming off extended layoffs. Both Three Perfections is likely to take more money and he can certainly win this race, but I think Cloontia is the more interesting of the two. He was part of a very fast pace in this 2016 finale, and Mighty Mo, who was contesting that hot pace, came back to win out of his effort in that race. I’ll certainly use him, but the runner that interests me most at an even bigger price is Pagliacci. This horse won his debut on turf and then was simply overmatched against some of the best horses in the 3-year-old turf division in the Palm Beach in his next turf start. He also did not get an ideal trip in that race after racing wide around both turns. Next time out at Keeneland, he actually ran deceptively well when setting the pace over a surface that was favoring horses making outside closing moves. He’s better on turf and gets back to his preferred surface here. I'll use him with the aforementioned Cloontia, as well as Bealestreet Dancer, who got a very wide trip last time and is capable of doing better here.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Box: 2,4,11
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7
Trifecta: 4,11 with 2,4,7,11 with 2,3,4,7,11
 
 

RACE 9: TOO MUCH MALIBU (#10)
I don’t trust the runners that are going to take the bulk of the play in this finale. One Tough Angel has finished in the money in all of her turf starts, but those races came against weak fields in Florida, and I think she’s vulnerable here. First-time starter County Club will take money for Wesley Ward, but she doesn’t have that much turf pedigree on the dam’s side. I’m taking a shot against them with Too Much Malibu, who didn’t show much in her debut but has a gigantic turf pedigree. She has three siblings that won on the turf and is a full sister to turf stakes winner Malibu Pier. It’s somewhat of a concern that she sold for only $32,000 as a 2-year-old, but if she can run at all, she’s supposed to do it on this surface. I'll primarily use her with Emerald Quality, who was facing much tougher company in her debut last fall, and Get the Jewels, who has a stronger turf pedigree than the other first time starters in this race and will be a bigger price.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Box: 7,8,10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,9,11