by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: SHRINK (#6)
I suppose Sophia’s Choice is the horse to beat as she cuts back in distance to seven furlongs while making her first start for the Barclay Tagg barn. However, she’s had plenty of chances, and I want a new face. Therefore, I’ll take a shot with Shrink. This filly didn’t show much in her debut last year, but she now switches to turf and moves into the capable hands of Michelle Nevin. This filly is certainly bred to handle the grass as a daughter of Freud, who is a half-sister to four turf winners.

Win/Place: 6
 
 

RACE 4: PIRATE SAILOR (#7)
Horses such as Baseline and Consumerconfidence make plenty of sense in this race, but there are a lot of other factors at play, and I want to instead highlight a longshot. Pirate Sailor’s lone turf race makes him a player in here. It came against a particularly tough group of $62,500 maiden claimers last fall. He secured the early lead coming across the wire for the first time, but then took the turn badly, bolting into the four path and losing the lead in the process. The winner of that race, Clyde’s Image, returned to run well against stakes company. Since then, he’s raced only on dirt, and now is making his second start off the claim for the capable Ray Handal barn as he switches back to his preferred surface.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,5,9,10
 
 

RACE 5: SECURED POSITION (#1)
If Cause for Surprise holds his form and repeats either of his last two efforts, he’s going to be tough for this field to handle. However, he’s had some time off and he’s been somewhat inconsistent in the past. I don’t want Duquesne Whistle, whose last speed figure looks a little suspicious in retrospect, and Wrong Ben rode a strong rail to victory when breaking his maiden. While I realize that my longshot pick Secured Position may not be good enough to win this race, I do think he will outrun his odds. He ran well at this level toward the end of 2015 before going off form while putting forth efforts that would make him competitive here. Furthermore, he’s run some of his best races off layoffs.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 2,4,6 wiht 2,4,5,6,8 with 1
 
 

RACE 6: COMMEND (#5)
I’m a little concerned that his best days may be behind him, but I want to give Commend a chance as he turns back to turf sprints. He just didn’t get the right trip last time when racing wide into the clubhouse turn from his outside post position, so I’m willing to give him a pass for that effort. He seems like a horse that prefers firmer turf courses, and he figures to get that Sunday. Bill Mott has solid numbers with turf turnbacks at NYRA. According to DRF Formulator, he is 12 for 47 with a $2.76 ROI with that move over the past five years.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
 
 

RACE 7: ALTAR BOY (#2)
Montclair is clearly the horse to beat after being unable to close into a slow pace last time. He has plenty of prior efforts that would make him awfully tough for these to handle, and just needs a fair pace to close into. However, I want to take a shot with one that is unproven at this distance. Altar Boy is coming into this race in good form. His last effort, in which he got left at the start and encountered traffic in the stretch, was much better than it seems. This is an interesting spot for Mike Maker to choose, but he actually has outstanding numbers in these types of races. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, Maker is 11 for 41 with a $3.16 ROI with all turf runners going 10 furlongs or farther at NYRA.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,7,10
 
 

RACE 8: SPLASHTASTIC (#2)
In a race where almost all of the major contenders are coming off significant layoffs, I want the horse coming off the best recent race – and that’s Splashtastic. I think this son of Tiz Wonderful prefers these two-turn routes at Aqueduct and Belmont, where he has more time to wind up around the less-severe turns. He finished second against a stakes-quality allowance field last time, and was actually getting to Dolphus in the late stages. That runner came back to finish a game second in the Pimlico Special, repeating his speed figure. I prefer him to Majestic Affair and Destin, who are both coming off lengthy layoffs after tailing off slightly in the summer of 2016.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,4,6,7 with 1,4,6,7