by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: UNFORGIVEABLE U (#6)
Courtmewithcarats is likely to go off as a deserving favorite here as she drops in class out of a tougher starter allowance race. She actually ran quite well that day since she was contesting a pace that ultimately collapsed. That said, there’s another runner in here with some back class that should be a slightly higher price. Unforgiveable U was no match for some tough fillies in Southern California last fall, but she ran competitive speed figures as a 2-year-old and never really had a chance against a runaway winner that speed-popped the field last time at Oaklawn. This barn has already tallied a couple of winners at the new meet.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4
 
 

RACE 3: TURCO BRAVO (#1)
If you pay attention to track biases, Tu Brutus is the kind of horse that you have to take a shot against. His Excelsior earned a gigantic speed figure, but he was on the lead on April 8, which was a day that was especially kind to front-runners, especially in the two-turn races. He’s a question mark at this distance, and is facing some proven marathoners. I’m trying to beat him with Scuba and his stablemate, Turco Bravo, who should be a more attractive price. He’s steadily been improving in recent starts and now stretches back out to his best distance.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta: 1,4 with 1,3,4,5

RACE 4: MADDIZASKAR (#4)
No Need to Appeal won at second asking for Chad Brown last time, and he’s certainly dangerous with horses coming off maiden victories. However, she beat a pretty weak field that day, and I think she’s meeting an older rival in top form. Maddizaskar really stepped forward when switched back to dirt this winter, only losing one start to the vastly improved She’s So Fine. She never had a chance on turf last time when trying to close into a slow pace.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6
 
 

RACE 6: ALTAR BOY (#3)
This is probably the most interesting race on the card if it stays on the grass. The horse to beat is Tombelaine, who returned with a solid effort at Gulfstream this winter, and had previously run exceptionally well under these same conditions at Belmont last fall. That day he did well to nearly get up for the win when closing into a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). However, he’s going to be a short price, and there are certainly other attractive options. The runner that I think will offer the best value is Altar Boy. He ran deceptively well in two starts this winter at Gulfstream, going wide two back, and then found running room too late on April 1. This horse is clearly best around one turn on the turf, and he won at this distance at Belmont last season. He’s capable of using more tactical speed than he’s shown recently, and Kendrick Carmouche should get him involved earlier.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,9,10,12
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,5,9,10,12
 
 

RACE 8: LIFE IN SHAMBLES (#2)
This may be only a listed stakes, but it came up as tough as a Grade 2 or Grade 3 event. Green Gratto won the Grade 1 Carter last time out, but did so with the help of a strong speed bias. He also has to deal with Chief Lion and Noholdingback Bear on the lead. The latter runner ran well as a 3-year- old, but Brian Lynch is 0 for 18 with runners returning from layoffs of 120 to 240 days in dirt sprints over the last five years (DRF Formulator). And then you have Stallwalkin’ Dude, who seems to always show up – but can he be ready for a top effort after getting just six weeks’ rest following his Dubai trip? I’ve decided to go in a completely different direction and am taking a shot with Life in Shambles. I know he looks inferior to the aforementioned runners, but I think he may be cycling up to a good effort. This horse just does not care for the inner track, having started seven times over that surface without a single top-three finish. Belmont is his preferred surface and he’s coming off a performance that is a bit better than it appears considering the slow pace. Based on his performances this winter, he doesn’t have that much ground to make up on Stallwalkin’ Dude and Green Gratto.

Win/Place: 2
Trifecta: 2 with 5,7,8 with 3,4,5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 5,7,8 with 2 with 3,4,5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 5,7,8 with 3,4,5,6,7,8 with 2
 
 

RACE 9: HELDATGUNPOINT (#7)
If this race stays on turf, I have to bet Heldatgunpoint. This son of Courageous Cat is three-quarters-brother to Acquired Cat, who was a 12-time turf winner, as well as two other turf winners who were not fathered by turf influences as strong as this colt’s sire. He hasn’t done much running in two dirt starts, but I think he can really wake up with this surface switch.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,6,11