by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Pawleys Express (#5) is obviously the horse to beat. She's run well in both career starts while earning two of the highest speed figures in the field. Furthermore, she is one of only a few horses in this race that possess early speed, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. The only knock against her is that she's incredibly obvious and may be a much shorter price than her 5/2 morning line.
The only alternative that I can find is DOUBLE DOSE (#3), who is the only horse that can make the favorite work on the lead. When assessing her last race, it's important to note that the posted fractions of her last race are incorrect. In reality, it was a moderate pace, not the slow pace that indicated. The 92 speed figure that she earned makes her competitive here and John Toscano gets a 91 trainer rating first off the claim. I realize that this barn has been cold lately, but perhaps they can start to turn it around now that we're back at Belmont.
The runner that I'm against is Ring Knocker (#2), who got an absolutely perfect setup when she won at Saratoga last time and is facing a tougher field today. Kalabaka (#1) isn't impossible, but she has a tendency to let someone beat her with seven second place finishes in nine career starts.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
It must be said that Electrified (#6) is the most likely winner of this race. There is a crazy long shot that I want to highlight, but in no way am I against the favorite. However, if you're playing exactas and trifectas, I do think there are some long shots that have a chance to get into this mix behind Electrified.
The one that I'm interested in is HYDE PARK EXPRESS (#5). I know that this horse hasn't done much running in any of her races, but I think there's reason to believe she could be set for better today. First of all, her first turf start is not as bad as the speed figure suggests, since many horses came back to improve out of that race. Then last time, it's worth watching the start of the race, since her low-percentage rider took her completely out of contention in the first sixteenth of a mile. Today she has the capable Manny Esquivel aboard, and I think this horse still deserves a fair chance on this surface, since she does have plenty of turf pedigree. As I said above, she's one to include underneath.
In larger trifecta wagers, I could also use long shots Congarees Key (#4), who gets a needed drop in class, and La Dama de Hierro (#12), who fits well at this level and gets back to what is arguably her best distance.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta: 6-5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4,11,12 with 5
Mighty Souper (#4) has earned the fastest speed figures, but she's had her chances in races at this level and has just failed to get it done. Perhaps her tactical speed gives her a slight pace edge today, but I prefer some of her up-and-coming challengers. Most will flock to either of the Chad Brown trained entrants, both of whom are coming off maidens wins as well as layoffs. The one that I prefer is Quinta Verde (#7), who beat a decent field at Keeneland and did so in impressive fashion with a sweeping move from the back of the pack. The only problem is that the race came over a year ago, so something's clearly gone wrong since then.
I ultimately decided to guess with QUIDURA (#5) at what should be a more inviting price. Graham Motion gets an excellent 97 trainer rating with his overseas shippers. I realize that this filly didn't do much running overseas, but there's a reason these connections, a breeding operation, are shipping this filly to the United States to race. She has a pedigree to be a nice one, and I wouldn't be surprised if she turns out to have some ability.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7
The horse to beat is Runs with Bulls (#2) off his strong last performance, but you have to ask yourself if you're going to get that same effort off the claim for this new barn. I have my doubts, and I'm also concerned that he benefitted from a favorable pace situation last time, which was the result of an especially conciliatory ride on his chief rival, GEAUX METS (#10). Today, the tables are turned. Geaux Mets, who has drawn the rail in four of his last five starts, is posted outside and finds himself in a spot that lacks much early speed. Geaux Mets is fast enough to stalk a moderate pace on the outside, and I'm intrigued by the claim and trainer switch to Ian Wilkes. Wilkes hasn't claimed that many horses in recent years, but he's certainly had success off the claim. I hope Eric Cancel gives this horse a more aggressive ride than Irad Ortiz, who has been rating him recently.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,6,9