by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 2: MARRIED TO ANYA (#9)
If Mission Trip repeats his last speed figure, he is going to be awfully tough for this field to handle. However, there are some reasons to be skeptical. He earned that number over a sloppy, sealed surface, and a few horses have come back out of that race to run significantly slower in subsequent starts. I’m going to try to beat him with Married to Anya, who is getting significant class relief in this spot. He made his first two starts in tough maiden special weight races won by the talented New York-breds Blue Belt and Stretch’s Stone. Then, last time, he found himself in one of the tougher $40,000 maiden claimers of the inner-track meet, and he actually didn’t run as poorly as it seems. Now, he’s getting a positive rider switch to Manny Franco as he goes out as a new gelding for the first time.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 5,6,7,8
 
 

RACE 3: HAVE ANOTHER (#6)
Perhaps Big Handsome will just prove to be too fast for this bunch. This horse had shown some potential on dirt, but he really woke up when switched to grass last time, easily crushing a maiden field at Gulfstream in a blazing final clocking of 54 2/5 seconds for five furlongs. He has to deal with the early speed of Delphinia here, but he is the horse to beat. That said, I need to give Have Another a chance as he switches back to turf. This horse made one start on grass as a 2-year-old, but he was very green and unprofessional that day. Since then, he’s really turned things around on dirt, putting in some explosive final quarter-miles on a few occasions. There is a ton of turf breeding on the dam’s side of his pedigree, and he is a half-brother to turf-stakes winner Vision Perfect.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5
 
 

RACE 4: MORETHANJUSTHELLO (#5)
The most talented turf sprinter in this race – especially over this Belmont course – is Magsamelia, but you have to be a little concerned about the layoff considering Carlos Martin’s mediocre numbers in this situation. I have to use her, but I’m open to some more creative options. A few runners are switching back to turf after spending the winter racing on the inner dirt track at Aqueduct, and the one whom I find most intriguing is Morethanjusthello. Her $14,000 price tag back on April 2 would have seemed like a bargain several months earlier, when she was running competitive turf races, but a series of poor dirt performances had left her running in cheap races. This filly put in a nice effort sprinting over this course last October and figures to get some pace to close into in this spot.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6,9
 
 

RACE 8: SUMMER READING (#2)
There’s no doubt that the two most accomplished turf sprinters in this field are Miss Ella and Fair Point. The two traded decisions toward the end of 2016, as Fair Point won Saratoga’s Smart N Fancy before dropping another close decision in Keeneland’s Franklin County. However, both are now coming off layoffs, and their trainers have mediocre numbers with these types of returnees. For that reason, I’m taking a shot against them with Summer Reading. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead, and this Jimmy Jerkens filly should have a clear advantage early if she’s ridden properly. She’s run better than it appears in a few of her turf starts, and her recent dirt races suggest that she may have taken a step forward this winter.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5
Trifecta Box: 1,2,5
 
 

RACE 9: ADMIRALS COVE (#2) / HOLLAND ROAD (#4)
There is no shortage of interesting contenders in this incredibly deep maiden field. While I certainly respect Homewood Field and Brianbakescookies, they bring exposed form into this event, and neither one figures to go off at a particularly attractive price. I’ll certainly use them, but I want to focus on a couple of longshots who could work their way into the exotics at huge prices. Admirals Cove makes his debut for David Donk, who – though not known for winning with firsters – has sent out some live debut horses at big prices over the past year. He is by the strong turf sire Hat Trick and out of a dam who was graded-stakes-placed on turf and has produced four turf winners as a broodmare. I’ll also include Holland Road, who has not done much running in either start but is out of a dam who was a turf winner and is a full sibling to a three-time turf winner.

Win/Place: 2,4
Exacta Key Box: 2,4 with 1,2,4,9
Trifecta: 1,9 with 1,9 with 2,4