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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 6.5 furlongs

I don’t trust Sicilia Mike (#5), the morning line favorite. His last speed figure makes him the horse to beat, but I find that number to be somewhat unreliable. Instead, I’m looking at horses coming out of other races. Mission Leader (#11) will certainly be tough as he drops out of a tougher maiden race, from which both Heavy Meddle and Fled have come back to do well.

However, the horse that interests me most at what should be a huge price is CONSTANT KNIGHT (#8). I know he was beaten by Conquest Prankster (#1) last time, but that one had everything his own way on the front end. Constant Knight was hindered by a pace that held together and was steadied briefly at the top of the stretch, which may have cost him some momentum. His prior race at Monmouth was actually a decent effort and we’ve seen a few horses run back out of that race to significantly improve their speed figures. I actually don’t mind this rider switch and feel that this horse is a live long shot.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,11
Trifecta: 8,11 with 8,11 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 1,5,11 with 1,5,11 with 8

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs

While there are certainly some interesting first-time starters in this race, as well as runners that could improve in their second starts, I typically prefer horses with proven form in these situations. Today, that horse is CHINA RIDER (#4), who put in a solid effort when finishing second here in June. She earned a decent 87 speed figure, and I find nothing wrong with that performance. Furthermore, while I don’t think she’s a turf horse, she actually came back to run well in her next start on grass at Saratoga, indicating that she’s held her form. David Cannizzo does well with this turf-to-dirt move (79 trainer rating), and I think she’s the horse to beat today at what could be a fair price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,7,9

Race 8: Allowance at 7 furlongs

I struggled with this race and ultimately decided that I wanted an alternative to short prices like Athena’s Aegis (#2) and Washington’s Song (#9). They’re certainly players in this spot, but they’re going to take money based on their supposed potential for improvement while other fillies and mares have run just as fast, or faster, already.

I don’t fully trust KATHY’S HUMOR (#7), but I think I have to take a shot with her if she’s going off at anything close to her morning line odds of 8/1. If she can repeat her effort two back, she may be the horse to beat in this spot. Last time at Saratoga, nothing went right, as she got involved in a pace that collapsed and went wide on the far turn. She was vanned off, so something obviously happened, but it’s encouraging to see her come back at the same level. I don’t mind the 7 furlongs for her, since she figures to be forwardly placed, according to our Pace Projector, in a situation favoring the frontrunners.

Among the others that I would include are Llanita (#6), who should appreciate getting back to seven furlongs; Maura's Pass (#3), who had everything her own way up front last time but has back races that make her competitive; and Not Taken (#8), who ran deceptively well last time.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6,8,9

Race 9: Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs

I can’t bet Dauphine Russe (#8) or Two Pump (#6). Both will be short prices, but I don’t trust them to repeat their turf efforts at Saratoga as they drop in class while returning from layoffs. Instead, I see two long shots that interest me.

My top pick is SUN AND MOON (#7), who goes out for the ever dangerous Jason Servis. Few trainers have better records with their turf sprinters (100 trainer rating) and I like that he’s switching this mare back to grass. She was overmatched in some tougher optional claiming races when she tried this surface early in 2016, but she actually performed well when realistically placed in some softer turf races last year.

The other horse that I want to use is MAGSAMELIA (#5), who should go off at an even larger price. Her two starts since the claim by Ed Barker are not quite as bad as they might look. Two back she just found a two-turn mile to be too far for her, and last time she was unwisely rated in a paceless race. Watching the head-on, you can see her throwing her head about as she is resenting Manny Franco taking a hold of her, and that fight with her rider took away from her late kick. She’s certainly fast enough to make the lead here, and I suspect Pablo Fragoso will try to use her speed today. When Magsamelia gets the right trip, she can win at this level.

Win/Place: 5,7
Exacta Key Box: 5,7 with 1,5,6,7,8,9
Trifecta Key Box: 5,7 with 5,7 with 1,6,8,9