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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 5: Allowance at 10 furlongs on turf
Assuming that this race stays on the turf, I’m not in love with any of the horses coming out of the allowance race on September 24. In some ways, Memories of Peter (#5) may have run the best race out of the three involved. Mission Driven (#7) got a great trip and just hung badly in the stretch, while Hunter O’Riley (#2) just made his usual belated move after the race was over. I want someone else, and the horse that interests me most is RICHMOND STREET (#10). While he didn’t beat much when he broke his maiden last time, he had previously faced some nice fields of maidens, including Revved Up and Deeply Undervalued. Even Sadler’s Joy, who worked out a better trip than Richmond Street, came back to beat many of today’s rivals last time. Bill Mott gets a 94 trainer rating with horses that broke their maidens last time out, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take another step forward today.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,5,7,8
Race 6: Allowance at 6.5 furlongs
I cannot argue with anyone that says Bombs Away (#2) is a deserving favorite in this race. If he runs back to his runner-up finish going a mile two back, he is not supposed to lose today. That said, he disappointed as the 6/5 favorite last time and took a significant step in the wrong direction. Maybe he just doesn’t want to go two turns, but I still don’t think he’s a complete cinch in this spot. At a much bigger price, I’m a little interested in long shot LAZARUS PROJECT (#6). This horse did well in one-turn races at the beginning of his career, and for whatever reason, his connections have been focusing on two-turn races since the spring. I don’t think he really wants to go that far, and I like this turnback. Whether he’s good enough to come out on top remains to be seen, but he’s going to be a huge price, and he’s the one I want to use alongside the favorite.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Box: 2,6
Trifecta: 2 with 6 with 3,5
Trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with 6
Race 7: The English Channel at 8 furlongs on turf
This is a very interesting race, with horses coming from a multitude of directions. While I do acknowledge that Isotherm (#3) ran the best race in the Commonwealth Derby last time, he did hang a bit in the late stages, something that he's shown a tendency to do on a few occasions. Strike Midnight (#4) has been facing the best competition and was blocked late in the stretch in the Hill Prince. Our Way (#11) has been in career form and is projected to get some pace to close into.
While I’ll use all of those horses, I’m most interested in CATAPULT (#5) at a more enticing price. This horse put in a spectacular effort in his debut at this distance as a two-year-old and has been struggling to get back to that performance ever since, acting as his own worst enemy in two turf tries against winners. However, he was more professional with blinkers last time while running over a surface that he may not have really cared for. It’s encouraging to see Javier Castellano stick around, and I like that Chad Brown is running him in a stakes off that win.
Others that I could use at bigger prices are Hockey School (#10), who ran the best race of his career when breaking his maiden over a yielding turf course, Hammers Vision (#9), who also handled a rain-softened course this spring, and Scholar Athlete (#7), who should appreciate cutting back to a mile after contesting longer races this summer.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,11 (Primary)
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7,9,10 (Backup)
Race 8: The Athenia at 8.5 furlongs on turf
Strike Charmer (#1) is obviously the horse to beat as she drops out of a much tougher spot against Lady Eli, Sentiero Italia, and Sea Calisi in the Flower Bowl. Those fillies will be major players in the Breeders’ Cup, but Strike Charmer’s connections have wisely set their sights a bit lower here. I have no major knocks against her other than the fact that she’s unlikely to get much pace to close into—but that’s true for a few contenders. I’m interested in a couple of alternatives.
My top selection is ALL IN FUN (#9). At least she has some tactical speed and should be placed close to the pace. Last time out, she was put in the difficult position of having to make the first run at Isabella Sings. She put that foe away but was run down late by closers. A mile and an eighth may be a bit of a stretch for her, and this slight turnback to a mile should suit her.
I also want to use MY SWEET GIRL (#5), who appreciates some give in the ground and was up against a slow pace in the Noble Damsel last time out. This filly has shown the ability to race closer to the pace on occasion, and I’m hoping Manny Franco can get her in the game earlier today.
Win/Place: 9 (Primary)
Win/Place: 5 (Backup)
Exacta Key Box: 5,9 with 1,3,5,7,9,10
Trifecta Key Box: 5,9 with 5,9 with 1,3,7,10