>>Visit TimeformUS for Sunday's Highlight Horse and PPs
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 2: Allowance at 6 furlongs on turf
This is a totally wide-open affair and it’s difficult to know where to start. For me, this race is about trying to beat Pine Ridge Forest (#10), who worked out an absolutely perfect trip when setting a slow pace (color-coded in blue) at Saratoga last time. He’s going to take money with Javier Castellano aboard, but he faces pace pressure from Peculiar Sensation and J. J. Jake.
I’m most interested in closers, and the one in particular that figures to go off at a generous price. FREEDOM SEVEN (#7) had absolutely no chance two back against the aforementioned Pine Ridge Forest after going wide around the turn behind the slow pace. Then last time I believe he may have been hindered by trying to make a run down inside in a race that featured more of an outside flow. I'll primarily use him with E J's Legacy (#8), who may appreciate getting back into a turf sprint, and Chasintheblues (#3), who may have run the best race of all on October 13.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,8,9
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf
There are some interesting first-time starters in this field, but the two horses to beat have both run on turf before and are coming out of the same race on September 11. Bogulator (#1) probably ran the better race that day going wide throughout and staying on well through the stretch. However, that was the time to have had her at 58/1 and she’s less appealing as the favorite, though she is a major player. If she draws into this race, I prefer DEFIANT HONOR (#13), who may have needed that race. She was between horses early and then could never quite get fully clear in the stretch. She was never going to win, but she did have to steady approaching the wire. I believe we haven’t yet seen the best of this full-sister to Recepta.
I would also upgrade Wake Island (#14) if she, too, were to draw into this race. Of the first-time starters, the one with the best turf pedigree might be Untouch (#11), who hails from a strong female family of turf runners.
Win: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 1,2,4,11,12,14
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming at 6 furlongs on turf
I suppose Final Chapter (#6) is the horse to beat, but isn’t he a little phony? After all, he got a strong pace to close into when he won at this level and distance back in May, and then he was allowed to set a ridiculously slow pace when he beat a tougher field in July. He’s back in the right spot, but I think there are other runners at bigger prices that could offer better value.
One of those is TIZ A CHANCE (#12), who finally gets back in a sprint race after experimenting in two-turn routes at Saratoga. That’s just not his game and he actually didn’t even run that badly in those starts. The last time he ran in a sprint race, he put in a strong performance to beat Forever in Love, who has shown some talent against open company.
At a huge price, I also want to throw in DARK ROAST (#5). I know he’s not really a winning type, but this horse’s form is pretty dirtied up this year after being ridden by some less-than-stellar riders. It’s easy to forget that he ran very well at this level in his last two sprint starts in New York, and he handles courses that have taken some rain. Don’t leave him out of your trifectas.
Win: 12
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5,12 with 2,4,5,6,12,13
Trifecta Key Box: 5,12 with 5,12 with 2,4,6,13
Race 8: The Chelsea Flower at 8 furlongs on turf
I’m not trying to get too creative here. Chad Brown’s two runners are the horses to beat, and I slightly prefer the one that figures to be a longer price. CREATE A DREAM (#12) actually ran pretty well in her U.S. debut in the Miss Grillo last time. The pace of that race was definitely on the slow side (color-coded in blue), and the runners ahead of her just got the jump on her. It seems as if she’s a horse that takes a few strides to really wind up into top gear, but she was finishing well through the wire. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace today, which should improve her chances of running them down.
The other major players are Chad's other horse, Beat the Benchmark (#4), who encountered some traffic trouble when slicing her way through the pack in the Natalma last time, and Christophe Clement's duo of Warrior Hall (#3) and Noble Ready (#8). At a bigger price, I also want to use Sensitive (#6), who ran well within the context of her last race as the only horse to make a significant run from the back of the pack.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,4,6,8
Race 9: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 6 furlongs on turf
None of the runners that are going to be short prices in this race are very talented, so I'm not afraid to take a shot against them. PERSKY'S SPIRIT (#10) has shown subtle but steady improvement in her recent dirt races and I think she’s an intriguing player as she switches back to turf—which her connections have been trying to make happen for three straight races. Her lone turf race is worth a viewing, since she was off slowly and then barely asked for run at any point by her rider, who seemingly gave up all hope after a poor start. She was probably overmatched that day anyway, but I think she deserves another shot on grass now that she's in better form. Silent Name is a turf sire and her dam has produced a turf winner, so there is pedigree evidence to suggest she’ll take to this surface. Given a somewhat murky pace scenario, I'm hoping that Samuel Camacho uses her natural speed.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,7,9,11,13
Trifecta: 1,7,9,11,13 with 1,7,9,11,13 with 10