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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 6 furlongs on turf

None of the runners that are going to be short prices in this race are very talented, so I'm not afraid to take a shot against them. PERSKY'S SPIRIT (#6) is the sort of horse that most handicappers would immediately disregard, but let's take a closer look at her. This year, she's shown subtle signs of life, flashing good early speed in a few races before coming from just off the pace to get up for third last time out. Her lone turf race is worth a viewing, since she was off slowly and then barely asked for run at any point by her rider, who seemingly gave up all hope after a poor start. She was probably overmatched that day anyway, but I think she deserves another shot on grass now that she's in better form. Her connections tried to get her back on this surface last time when her race was rained off, and they try again today. Silent Name is a turf sire, her dam has produced a turf winner, and she has a turfy action to her stride. Given a somewhat murky pace scenario, I'm hoping that Samuel Camacho uses her natural speed.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,7,8,9,12
Trifecta: 5,8,9 with 5,7,8,9,12 with 6

Race 6: Claiming $40,000 at 7 furlongs on turf

Market Strength (#12) is probably the horse to beat as he drops slightly in class out of a tougher starter allowance race. He actually ran better than it might appear that day, since he set a fast pace that ultimately fell apart. The turnback to seven furlongs is a question mark, but he has to be on your tickets.

However, I want to take a shot against him with LUCKY TOWN (#8), given what should be a much more attractive price. This horse broke his maiden at this distance, so you know he’ll get the trip. He ran three times at Saratoga and I don’t think he had an opportunity to show his best form in any of those races. Five and a half furlongs may be too short for him, and he just set very fast paces in his pair of two-turn races, which made it impossible for him to get the distance. This was especially true last time when he went up to force a pace that was already quick, ultimately causing the race to collapse late. We saw the pacesetter, The J Y, come back out of that race to win, so I expect Lucky Town to give a better account of himself here.

At a huge price, I also want to throw in Mister Dooley (#1) on the bottom rungs of the trifecta. This horse finally gets some subtle class relief and I like the rider switch to Pablo Fragoso, who is known to be aggressive. He has shown some ability on occasion and seven furlongs may be a more suitable distance for this horse.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Box: 1,8,12
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,10,11
Trifecta: 8,12 with 1,2,5,7,8,10,11,12 with 1,8,12
Trifecta: 8,12 with 1,8,12 with 2,5,7,10,11

Race 8: Optional Claiming at 6 furlongs on turf

FINAL CHAPTER (#4) was simply overmatched last time traveling a distance that is probably a bit farther than he really wants to go. He also was compromised by racing wide on the turns chasing a pace that collapsed. I love that he’s getting back to sprinting on turf, since he arguably ran the best race of his career at this distance three back. Bill Mott does very well with his turnbacks on turf, and I think this horse finds himself in a great spot from a class perspective.

vAnother horse that interests me at a bigger price is THE CROCHERON KID (#3). Of all those coming out of the seventh race on September 9, I thought he might have run the best race. He contested a solid pace and had to put away a few speedy long shots before the closers came and ran him down. This time there is far less speed signed on, and the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be towards the front in a situation favoring the leaders. I’m not quite convinced that he’s good enough to beat Final Chapter, but he’s worth throwing in at a price.

Win: 4
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 3,4,7
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 3,4 with 5,6,7,8 with 3,4

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs on turf

We've seen many of the progeny of D'Funnybone take to the turf, and D'ELOQUENT (#5) was no exception, as he ran better than it appears in his grass debut two races back. The pace of that race was slow (color-coded in blue), and D'Eloquent was unwisely rated despite the fact that he was projected to be up on the lead in that race. He actually did well to nearly get up for second in a race that was wired on the front end. Last time, in a race that was rained off the grass, they used his early speed but he just couldn’t get the demanding mile and an eighth distance. Today, I expect Joel Rosario to have him forwardly placed again (the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be on the lead) and I believe he'll offer some value.

I also want to give quick mention to another “wise guy” horse, Primo Pentimento (#10), who made a premature move after breaking slowly last time, and has a right to do better here. I’ll focus primarily on these two in the finale.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,7,10,11
Trifecta: 5,10 with 5,10 with 4,6,7,11
Trifecta: 5,10 with 4,6,7,11 with 5,10