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By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona 

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs

Tale of Mist (#1) may have run the best race last time out when he overcame a moderate pace to nearly get up for the win, but this is a different situation today. He was able to use his ample stamina to grind out some nice performances going a mile and an eighth at the Spa, but I'm not sure that this turnback to a one-turn mile really suits him.

For that reason, I prefer I'M AMAZING (#2), whose last race is actually much better than it seems. He was unwisely sent up into a four-wide battle for the lead on the far turn and actually stayed on well in the stretch to nearly get third. This time, you have to expect that the intention is to send to the lead, tactics which nearly led to a win two back, as they add blinkers to his equipment.

The only other runner I want to consider is Winning Road (#6), who faced some decent fields as a two-year-old and makes his return for Mike Dilger, who does well off layoffs. He can use his tactical speed to work out a good trip stalking the top selection.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with 1,4,6

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs on the turf

Both horses coming out of the second race on August 27 are major players in this race. The shorter price of the two is likely Ballagh Rocks (#9), who actually ran well in both starts up at Saratoga. He was three-wide around the turns on each occasion, and nearly got the job done anyway. However, he's not the easiest horse to ride, since he often is reluctant to change leads and tends to get a bit headstrong.

I think THREE PERFECTIONS (#8) has more room for improvement. This son of Shakespeare didn't run badly in his debut and stepped forward nicely last time when he was involved in a fast pace (color-coded in red) before just succumbing to the closers in a race that fell apart late. Without any confirmed frontrunners in this race, perhaps Luis Saez can work out a forwardly-placed trip through moderate early fractions.

However, both of the aforementioned runners will have to hold off War of Ideas (#2), who is likely to give a much better account of himself than he did in his debut. He took a ton of money that day, but could do no better than fourth after he was hindered by a wide trip and slow pace. This son of stakes-winning router Hightap should appreciate the extra furlong.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6,9

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs on the turf

This may be the most interesting race on the card, as there are things to like about almost every runner in the race. While I respect the few runners with proven turf form, I'm intrigued by second-time starter CULPA MIA (#5), who tries turf for the first time. This filly actually ran really well in her debut, in which she was shuffled back after breaking from the rail and proceeded to make a middle move into contention around the far turn. Now Bill Mott is adding Lasix (an 80-rated trainer move for him) and immediately switching this filly to turf. She is by strong turf sire Street Boss and is a half-sister to one turf winner. I think this filly has some ability and it seems as if she could get lost in the wagering in a very confusing race.

Of those with turf experience, the one that I want most is Bellavais (#10) who did well to nearly overcome a slow pace (color-coded in blue) in her turf-sprint debut. Today she gets Lasix for the first time and doesn't have to improve much to come out on top. Orecchiette (#2) was closer to that pace last time, which helped her chances. Fly Swift (#3) is also somewhat intriguing after having to be steadied hard in midstretch of her last race. However, I believe she's facing a tougher field here.

There are also a few first-time starters worth mentioning, most notably Divergent Thinking (#12), a full-sister to Stonetastic, and Battle Joined (#1), a daughter of War Front out of a turf stakes winner. Finally, the other first-time turfer, Accepting (#11), is far from impossible as she possesses plenty of turf pedigree and took serious money in her debut. This is a fun race.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,10,11,12

Race 8: The John Hettinger at 9 furlongs on the turf

While I respect Fourstar Crook (#2), who comes into this riding a five-race winning streak, I don't want to take a very short price on a filly that figures to drop much lower than her 2/1 morning line. Furthermore, while she was best in the Yaddo, that race had a real outside flow to it as all three runners that filled out the trifecta made wide late moves. I'm taking a shot against her here because I love the chances of one of her competitors.

OLD HARBOR (#6), last year's winner of the Hettinger, appears to find herself in a great situation today in a race that features very little pace. Perhaps Carameaway or Invading Humor will show some early intitiative, but Old Harbor figures to work out a preferred outside stalking trip. She gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz, and is coming off one of the best performances of her carrier, in which she earned a 118 speed figure while breaking the track record at Delaware Park. As she's gotten older, I think more distance actually suits her, so she figures to relish this mile and an eighth distance. Her morning line price of 8/1 would be a steal.

I'll key Old Harbor on top of most wagers, and will primarily use Fourstar Crook and The Tea Cups (#7) underneath. At a much bigger price, I could throw in Selenite (#10) on the bottom rungs of trifecta bets, since she ran well two back and was never really clear in the stretch last time.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 2,7 with 2,3,5,7,8,10
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5,8,10 with 2,7