by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: BOW TIE AFFAIR (#9)
Tale of Fancy is clearly the horse to beat as he drops in class for trainer Barclay Tagg. While this horse doesn't necessarily belong in stakes company, it does seem a little soon for him to be in so cheaply considering that just two races back he was involved in a blanket finish with Grade 1 winner American Patriot. His last race, which came at Keeneland, was disappointing, and now he's dangled for this $40,000 tag. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years Tagg is just 1 for 12 ($0.50 ROI) when moving horses from allowance to claiming company. I think Tale of Fancy could be vulnerable here, and I'll try to beat him with Bow Tie Affair. He is one of the few horses in the race that fits squarely at this class level. His connections took a shot in an allowance race last time and he was compromised by a slow pace. However, his prior starts against claiming foes were decent, and he even finished a good second at this same class level back in December. I like that he's reunited with Luis Saez and believe that he should get a fair-enough pace to close into.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,6,7,10
 
 

RACE 6: ORNATO (#11)
In a race where none of the runners bring positive turf form to the table, I want to bet Ornato, who figures to appreciate this surface switch. He hasn't run that badly in his dirt races, and his pedigree suggests that he could move forward getting on turf for the first time. He's a half-brother to just one turf winner, but it's worth noting that most of his half-siblings were sired by poor turf influences Behrens and Will's Way. His two siblings sired by positive turf influences City Zip and Grand Slam both preferred racing on grass. This gelding's sire is 15% turf sire Orientate, so he, too, has a right to really appreciate the surface change.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 4,6,7,9,10
 
 

RACE 7: STELLA ROSE (#7)
The entry figures to be tough to beat in this spot. My Girl Corey really moved forward this winter for Chad Brown, though she steps up to face a tougher group this time. Island Reward was dazzling in her last start in New York, and now lands in the stable of capable turf trainer Jason Servis. One of these runners prefers to race up close to the pace and the other will be closing from the back of the pack. However, there are other quality runners in here that figure to go off at more attractive prices, and I'm inclined to focus on one of them. Stella Rose returns from a layoff in this spot, and Christophe Clement gets a solid 94 Trainer Rating with runners coming off breaks of this length. Furthermore, her recent form is much stronger than it appears to be, considering that she encountered trouble in her last two starts. Two back at Aqueduct, she was spun out extremely wide coming around the far turn when a horse lost her rider, and she had to swerve around the incident. All things considered, she did well to get beaten by only a couple of lengths on that occasion. Then last time, at Gulfstream, she was off slowly and squeezed back at the start, placing her far off the pace in a race that did not set up well for closers. This filly showed real talent last summer, and I think she can get back to those efforts here.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 3,5,6,9
 
 

RACE 9: HIDDEN VOW (#12)
Horses like Unbridled Ocean, Approvethismessage, and No Texting have all been running reasonably well and make sense in this competitive finale. However, I cannot ignore the recent claim of Hidden Vow given the impressive numbers that Jason Servis has posted with this move. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years Servis is 18 for 46 (39%) first off the claim on the turf with an ROI of $2.92. Additionally, it's interesting that he's riding Paco Lopez in this spot, since the two of them have been unstoppable recently. Over the past year, that combination is 16 for 32 (50%) in turf races with an ROI of $3.39. Hidden Vow had already run well enough to win races at this level, as he showed last fall at Aqueduct, and he figures to show up with an improved effort here.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,6,7,11