by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: KITTY MADDNES (#4)
I'm not trying to beat Kitty Maddnes, who figures to be a relatively short price off a troubled trip. Jose Lezcano was trying to save ground along the rail last time, but he wasn't able to get into the clear as the field entered the stretch, and Kitty Maddnes ended up running right into the rears of the tiring horses ahead of her. From there, she had to alter course multiple times but just kept finding trouble. She finally got clear at the eighth pole and did well to rally for fifth despite having lost all of her forward momentum. This filly has run plenty of races that could beat this field, and she should get enough pace to close into with Undertherain and Little Miss Amy in the field.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,8
 
 

RACE 5: DRIVEN BY SPEED (#10)
I'm typically not a fan of horses like Driven by Speed, who won their maidens against a weaker group and are stepping up to face tougher in their first try against winners. However, I cannot deny how well Driven by Speed ran to win that race last time out, and I think that a similar effort may be good enough to defeat even this more accomplished crew. Furthermore, the field she defeated last time was stronger than your average $40,000 maiden-claiming field. No fewer than five horses have returned to win their next start out of that race, including second-place finisher Dreamy Margarita, who stepped up to beat maiden special weight company.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,5,8
 
 

RACE 7: FREE N CLEAR (#8)
Conquest Hardcandy is the horse to beat based on her Florida form. She defeated the capable stakes performer Happy Mesa two back and was hindered by a mildly unfavorable pace scenario in her most recent outing. This New York-bred is now making her first start against statebreds after facing open company in all of her turf races. However, she's moving into the barn of James Ryerson, who has been having a rough go of it over the past year or so. I think there are some more intriguing options at better prices, and the horse whom I want to bet is Free N Clear. I know that her two 2017 starts have been somewhat disappointing, but she's been badly overmatched in those races. She put in efforts during her 3-year-old season that would suggest she can be competitive at this level. Furthermore, now she gets back over her preferred firm going after encountering rain- softened turf in her two prior efforts this year. She has a much better chance to win this race than her 20-1 morning-line odds would have you believe.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,7
 
 

RACE 8: HIGHLAND SKY (#6)
Highland Sky disappointed as the odds-on favorite last time, but I can make excuses for that effort. He beat the gate at the start, which was not exactly an advantage for a horse who does his best running from well off the pace. From there, he got buried down inside by his rider, who made no attempt to get him off the rail. Highland Sky has proven on numerous occasions that he does his best running making a sweeping outside move, and he was never given the opportunity to do that on this occasion. He figures to appreciate stretching out to 10 furlongs in this spot, and Javier Castellano will be under firm instructions to ride him properly. He won't be much of a price, but he is very likely to win this race and move on to bigger and better things this summer.

Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,7 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,7 with 1,4,5

 
 

RACE 9: CALIFORNIA SWING (#1)
There are many ways to go in this finale, but the horse who I think represents the best wagering opportunity is California Swing. While all of his recent starts have come on dirt, he is really more of a turf horse and is now getting back to his preferred surface. He's bred to handle longer distances, and his lone turf-route attempt from last fall is not a true representation of his ability given the trip he worked out that day. He was stymied in traffic for much of the stretch run, losing all chance. He would have finished much closer had his rider been able to maneuver him into the clear. Now he's dropping in for a tag, and Christophe Clement has unbelievable numbers with maiden claimers in this situation. Over the past five years, Clement is 8 for 12 (67 percent) with a $6.40 ROI with horses going from dirt to turf in maiden-claiming company.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6,8,11