by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: SWEET AUGUST LADY (#6)
Piquet is undoubtedly the horse to beat and a deserving favorite. However, she probably should have won last time after working out a decent trip. Instead, she just got nailed on the wire at a short price, and she's probably going to be an even bigger favorite here. I'm going to try to beat her with a runner trying turf for the first time. I don't think we saw the best of Sweet August Lady in her debut. She was entered for turf, but her race was rained onto the main track. While she handled the dirt well enough, she was compromised by an uncomfortable trip, getting shuffled back at a few points while dealing with kickback. She has enough pedigree to handle turf, being by City Zip, and Chad Brown tends to be successful in these situations.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,7,8
 
 

RACE 3: MAGSAMELIA (#6)
I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Magsamelia. She may have needed her last start when returning from a lengthy layoff for a trainer who is not known for winning off long breaks. Now she moves into the barn of Linda Rice, who gets a 98 Trainer Rating first off the claim. Six furlongs is her best distance, and she figures to get a great trip racing close to the pace in a race that lacks confirmed front- runners. She's not going to be much of a price, but I do believe she is a very likely winner of this race.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 4,5,8,9
 
 

RACE 5: JUPITER RISING (#4)
Jegos Fire has the best turf form, but he's had his chances at this level. He's gotten fast paces to close into in his prior two starts, and there may not be quite as much speed in this field. I think there are some more intriguing options in this race. My top pick is Jupiter Rising, who returns from a lengthy layoff for Mike Hushion. While Hushion's numbers off breaks like this are merely decent, this gelding has a pedigree that suggests he will really move up with this switch to turf. He is a half-brother to two turf winners, including multiple turf winner Nedjma. Additionally, he faced stronger fields in each of his starts as a 2-year-old and should benefit from some class relief.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 9,12,13,14
 
 

RACE 6: WHATSTOTALKABOUT (#2)
There figures to be a pretty honest pace in this race given the presence of speeds like Wrong Ben and Heavy Meddle. I'm hoping that's the case because the runner I want to bet needs a little help up front. Recent maiden winner Whatstotalkabout took a few tries to break out of the maiden ranks and is stepping up to face a tougher field today. This seems like a tall order, but his trainer, Jason Servis, has incredible numbers with runners coming off maiden wins and racing in turf sprints. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he is 8 for 18 (44 percent, $3.43 ROI) in such situations. Furthermore, I think Whatstotalkabout will appreciate this cutback to six furlongs since he tends to get a bit leg-weary at the end of his races at longer distances.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,10
 
 

RACE 8: BROWSE (#8)
The horse to beat in this featured eighth race is Boos, who makes her U.S. debut. As a 2-year-old, she kept strong company, facing group stakes winners like Thunder Snow and Spain Berg while facing males almost exclusively. She gave solid accounts of herself on multiple occasions and would be awfully tough for this field to handle if she can duplicate that form as a 3-year-old. The only drawback is that her trainer, Alan Goldberg, is 0 for 7 with foreign shippers over the past five years. I'll use her strongly, but I'm going to take a small shot with the longer-priced Browse. I've always been interested to see when they were going to try this filly on turf given her pedigree. She is a half-sister to three turf winners, including Grade 1 winner Imagining. I think she finds herself in a great situation here given that there is not much speed signed on in this race and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. Shug McGaughey gets a 95 Trainer Rating with runners switching from dirt to turf.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 6,7,10,11
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,5,7,10,11